Bernstein says AT&T, Best Telco 2026 ! Sure ?
@JC888：
Bernstein, a global financial powerhouse, has identified $AT&T Inc(T)$ as a "Top Pick" within the telecommunications sector. The firm’s optimistic stance is rooted in AT&T’s successful execution of its "convergence strategy"—the bundling of wireless and fiber services. Bernstein highlights that approximately 41% of AT&T’s fiber customers now also subscribe to its wireless services. This synergy is a critical value driver, as bundled customers typically exhibit significantly lower churn rates and higher lifetime value compared to single-product users. The Plus Points. Furthermore, Bernstein points to the company's aggressive fiber expansion, which has already reached over 31 million locations, with a long-term goal of 60 million by 2030. The firm views AT&T’s strategic acquisitions (see below) as key moves that will solidify its leadership in connectivity revenue through the end of the decade: Spectrum licenses from EchoStar. (details see below) Fibre assets from $Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$. Collaboration with AST SpaceMobile. (details, see below) EchoStar. The agreement to purchase the ~50 MHz of $EchoStar(SATS)$'s nationwide spectrum licenses, is a smart approach. It eliminates the requirement for capital-intensive construction of cell sites to boost network capacity. During the quarter, AT&T has deployed mid-band spectrum from EchoStar at approximately 23,000 cell sites across the country. This is expected to significantly increase speed & capacity for customers in 5,300 cities across 48 states. AST SpaceMobile. AT&T is also collaborating with $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ to expand into the emerging satellite connectivity space. The company has also activated its 4th satellite ground gateway and successfully launched Bluebird 6 — the largest commercial communications array deployed in low earth orbit (LEO). These factors are expected to have boosted commercial prospects for AT&T. The Minus Point. AT&T still faces stiff competition in the US telecom market from other major peer players, eg $T-Mobile US(TMUS)$ and $Verizon(VZ)$. Despite efforts to expand into the broadband space, competition remains from Charter, Verizon and other emerging service providers. TMUS and VZ, along with AT&T, cover more than 300 million people. In such a highly saturated market, it’s very challenging to retain customers and expand the user base. To enhance customer churn rate, AT&T often provides healthy discounts, freebies and cash credits. Such a strategy escalates the pressure on margin. Q4 2025 Earnings Forecast. Based on Wall Street LSEG estimates, AT&T Q4 2025 earnings are as follows: Quarterly forecast: Revenue: expected to come in at $32.75 billion vs Q4 2024’s $32.30 billion; that is a +0.8% YoY gain. Earnings per share (EPS): expected to be $0.47/share vs Q4 2024’s $0.54/share; that’s a -12.9% YoY losses. Operating margin: expected to come in negative at -15.5% vs Q4 2024’’s 16.4%; that’s a -0.9% YoY loss. Annual forecast: Earnings estimate for 2025 has increased by +0.49% to $2.06/share (over the past 60 days). Earnings estimate for 2026 remain status quo at $2.25/ share. Invest Before Q4 2025 Earnings? The consensus among the provided reports suggests that AT&T is a strong candidate for investors seeking stability and long-term growth through fiber dominance. Ahead of the Q4 2025 earnings release (slated for Wed, 28 Jan 2026), the company has shown robust operational momentum, including its highest broadband additions in over 8 years. While revenue growth has been relatively flat in recent years, the expansion of Consumer Wireline EBITDA margins—which grew by 350 basis points YoY, indicates improved profitability. Bernstein’s designation of the stock as a "Top Pick" suggests confidence that the upcoming earnings will reflect continued success in these areas. This makes AT&T a potential smart entry point for those focused on the company's "convergence" narrative. Peer Price Performance Comparison. Over the past year (2025), AT&T has gained +5.2% against the industry’s decline of -5.9%, outperforming peers VA (+0.8%) and TMUS (-16.5%).(see above) Surely, this should mean something substantial, no ? Key Value Metrics. From a valuation standpoint, AT&T appears to be trading relatively cheaper than the industry and below its mean. Using price/earnings ratio (P/E) as a measuring guide, AT&T shares currently trade at 10.35x expected earnings, that is lower than industry average of 11.11 and its own typical average of 12.56. (see above) Technical Analysis (Trailing 12 Months) As of 23 Jan 2026 end day As of late January 2026, AT&T’s technical indicators present a more cautious, "Strong Sell" signal for immediate price movement: (see above) Moving Averages (MA): As of Fri, 23 Jan 2026, AT&T is trading below its key moving averages of 20-day ($24.07), 50-day ($24.69), and 200-day ($26.83). Trading below these levels typically indicates a bearish trend in the short, medium, and long term. On 7 Nov 2025, AT&T triggered a death cross when its 50-day moving average finally slipped below the 200-day moving average; spelling a mid to long term “bearish” momentum. MACD: The MACD (12, 26) is at -0.34, remaining in negative territory below the signal line ( -0.33). The negative divergence (-0.01) indicates that downward momentum is still active. RSI : AT&T’s 14-day RSI is currently at 43.7. This is a neutral territory, indicating the telecom company is not "oversold" yet. AT&T Formation. As of January 2026, AT&T is currently exhibiting a clear Downtrend Channel that was triggered by the completion of a Rounding Top formation. "Rounding Top" (The Reversal Phase) Between early 2025 and October 2025, the stock performed a Rounding Top (also known as an "Inverted Saucer"). The price gradually climbed to a peak of roughly $29.79 in September, stalled as buying exhausted, and then slowly began to curve downward. This was a reversal pattern, signaling that previous bullish momentum from early 2025 had ended and the "distribution phase" (where institutional investors sell to retail) was complete. "Downtrend Channel" (current phase) Once the Rounding Top was completed in late 2025, the stock entered a Descending (Downtrend) Channel, which is its current state. This is defined by two parallel downward-sloping lines. The "upper rail" (resistance) is formed by lower highs at $24.84 (Dec) and $24.71 (early Jan). The "lower rail" (support) is formed by lower lows, recently hitting a 52-week low near $23.19. This is a continuation pattern, showing the bearish sentiment is now "stable" and organized. The stock is systematically losing value as it bounces between these two downward lines. Breakout Moments. As of late January 2026, the stock is trading near $23.59. For a "clear & obvious” breakout that signals the end of the downtrend, the price must achieve the following: Immediate Breakout Target: $24.10 – $24.35 - the "Upper Rail" of the descending channel and the 20-day MA. "Confirmation" Level: $24.70 Crossing the 50-day MA is crucial. Trend Reversal Target: $26.85+ To fully "heal" the 12-month chart and undo the damage from the Rounding Top, the stock must reclaim its 200-day MA. My viewpoints: (mine only) From a fundamental perspective, Bernstein views AT&T as a smart investment due to its (a) market-leading fiber expansion and (b) low customer churn. However, the technical indicators suggest that immediate stock price movement is bearish, as the stock is struggling to stay above its major moving averages. Heading into the Q4 earnings announcement, Investors will be caught between (1) the strong long-term business case and (2) the weak short-term technical setup. Ultimately, it boils down to investor’s confidence in AT&T’s growth in the mid to long term and buy the dip along the way. It helps that AT&T issue a forward annual dividend of $1.11/share. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Litigious Trump sue JP Morgan. Who Wins ? MSFT & ORCL, best stocks for Newbies? Can't Be ! No Cuts & Sticky Inflation, What to invest ? Do you think Bernstein is on the right path, with regards to AT&T impending growth’? Do you think AT&T’s technical analysis reveal a more accurate account of the stock ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? 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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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