To The Moon

Hi everyone! Today we’re breaking down the latest CFTC data—the Commitments of Traders report published weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

If you trade futures, this is a must-watch indicator. Why? Because it reveals the balance between bulls and bears, tracks where big money is flowing, and offers key insights into market sentiment and price expectations. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$

The report splits traders into two main groups:

• Commercial traders (industry players like miners or manufacturers hedging real exposure)

• Non-commercial traders (speculators—hedge funds, institutional players betting on price moves)

We’ll walk through it together so you’ll clearly see how to read between the lines. Going forward, this will become a regular feature—so if you’re into futures or options trading, be sure to follow!

Now, let’s look at the latest CFTC futures data. We’ll start with a big-picture view, then zoom in on copper specifically. And heads up: next week, we’ll drop a deep-dive report on copper and aluminum, so stay tuned! $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $麦克莫兰铜金(FCX)$

Why all the buzz around copper lately?
 Supply side: Recent mine accidents have disrupted output. JPMorgan estimates full production won’t resume until Q2—creating a near-term supply gap.
 Demand side: The energy transition and AI boom are driving surging demand for copper-intensive infrastructure.

That’s why so many futures firms and funds are laser-focused on copper—it could very well stage a silver-like bull run! $白银主连 2603(SImain)$

But hold on—we’re keeping things simple today since this is our first CFTC walkthrough. First, let’s understand what this data actually tells us, then we’ll drill into copper’s specific numbers.

Take the Total Open Interest Percentile—it measures overall market interest in a commodity by combining both commercial and non-commercial positions across futures and options. While it doesn’t predict price direction, it clearly shows which markets are “hot.”

To better gauge热度 (market heat), we’ve merged futures + options open interest percentiles for reference.

As you can see, ICE Cotton and CBOT Soybean Oil rank highest—meaning they’re currently getting the most attention from traders. $棉花ETN-iPath(BAL)$ $豆油主连 2603(ZLmain)$ $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$

Commercial Net Position Ratio (Figure 2) refers to positions held by miners, smelters, traders, and other physical market participants for hedging purposes. These players have real underlying exposure and often hold physical inventory, so they typically go short to hedge risk.

As shown in the chart, their net positions are consistently net-short over the long term (i.e., commercial net short > 0). When these commercial players start going net-long, it’s considered an anomaly—often signaling that prices have already hit a bottom. In such cases, producers are buying (or holding back supply), indicating they expect higher prices ahead.

For WTI crude oil, this indicator has been persistently positive (net-long) for a long time, so it carries limited signal value.

Looking at the current Commercial Net Position Ratio:

• WTI crude shows a sustained positive reading, which has recently increased further—again, not particularly meaningful due to its chronic nature.

• CBOT Soybean Meal and COMEX Copper both show large negative ratios, meaning commercial players are heavily net-short.

Notably, in copper, industry giants are actively selling forward to hedge, signaling they view current prices as historically high and are bearish on near-term upside.

This wave of commercial hedging adds downward pressure on copper prices—these “smart money” shorts from the physical side could cap rallies or accelerate declines if sentiment shifts.$棉花ETN-iPath(BAL)$ $豆油主连 2603(ZLmain)$ $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$

Non-Commercial Net Position Ratio  refers to the net long position share held by hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculative institutions. This group is often the primary driver of price trends, as they typically trade with the momentum—buying when prices rise and selling when they fall. Following their positioning can offer valuable directional insight for investors.

According to the non-commercial net position ratio:
Both COMEX Copper and COMEX Gold show large negative values, meaning speculative players are holding significant net-short positions.

However, the key takeaway isn’t just the direction—it’s the magnitude. The large absolute values indicate these markets are receiving high attention from funds. In other words, even though specs are net-short, their heavy involvement signals strong institutional interest, which can amplify volatility and set the stage for sharp reversals if sentiment shifts.

The COT indicator. A reading in the 90%–100% range indicates overbought conditions, while a reading in the 0%–10% range signals oversold conditions.

However, during strong bull or bear markets, the COT indicator tends to become desensitized (or "blunted"), lingering in extreme zones for prolonged periods without clear reversal signals. Moreover, since it cannot accurately pinpoint the exact timing of market turning points, it primarily serves as a risk warning tool rather than a precise trading signal.

As of now, no commodity shows an anomalous reading in the non-commercial COT indicator.

Alright, next we’ll focus specifically on COMEX copper, analyzing only its futures data (excluding options).

First, take a look at the first chart: the Commercial COT Index, which clearly shows that industrial players have a very strong willingness to short the market. $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $美国铜指数基金(CPER)$

The second chart shows the Non-Commercial COT Index. Although it has pulled back slightly, it remains relatively elevated overall. If new tariff policies are implemented, this index could drop sharply in a short period. Therefore, everyone should pay close attention to the non-commercial positioning data. $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $南方铜业(SCCO)$

Below is the detailed breakdown of commercial (industrial) positions. The commercial net position ratio is negative with a large absolute value, indicating that industry players are highly satisfied with current prices, which are at historically elevated levels. $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $南方铜业(SCCO)$

Note that in recent weeks, net long positions have not continued to rise significantly—instead, they’ve flattened out. This suggests we may already be in the late stage of this rally. Goldman Sachs has also issued a warning that new incremental capital to push prices higher may soon dry up. $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $南方铜业(SCCO)$

This is the total open interest for COMEX copper futures, representing the total volume of capital still active in the market (i.e., positions that have not yet been closed).

Open interest has clearly been rising and has now surpassed the 300,000-contract mark. According to Goldman Sachs, this buildup reflects inventory hoarding in anticipation of tariff-related risks. $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $南方铜业(SCCO)$

Current copper prices already embed too many optimistic expectations—such as anticipated supply shortages, potential tariffs, and other forward-looking narratives. When these expected events actually materialize, prices often reverse or correct rather than continue rising. $铜矿ETF-Global X(COPX)$ $南方铜业(SCCO)$

Stay tuned for my upcoming in-depth analysis on copper, where I’ll break down the market from multiple angles: historical trends, supply-demand fundamentals, trading strategies, and market sentiment.

(None of the above constitutes investment advice.)