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大浪淘沙懒洋洋
02-09

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Takaichi Sanae won the Japanese general election! Japanese stocks may take advantage of the situation to hit new highs, the yen is approaching the 160 mark, and Treasury Bond is under selling pressure again

智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗领导的自民党有望取得压倒性胜利，这预示着日本股市或将延续涨势，而日元和国债则面临进一步下跌的压力。至于今年1月遭遇重挫、并引发全球市场震荡的日本国债，如今再面临进一步抛售的风险。除市场流动性低迷外，高市早苗提出的食品消费税临时减免政策，以及市场对日本财政可持续性的担忧再起，均成为推动国债抛售的核心因素。

Takaichi Sanae won the Japanese general election! Japanese stocks may take advantage of the situation to hit new highs, the yen is approaching the 160 mark, and Treasury Bond is under selling pressure again

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Japanese stocks may take advantage of the situation to hit new highs, the yen is approaching the 160 mark, and Treasury Bond is under selling pressure again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610250584","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗领导的自民党有望取得压倒性胜利，这预示着日本股市或将延续涨势，而日元和国债则面临进一步下跌的压力。至于今年1月遭遇重挫、并引发全球市场震荡的日本国债，如今再面临进一步抛售的风险。除市场流动性低迷外，高市早苗提出的食品消费税临时减免政策，以及市场对日本财政可持续性的担忧再起，均成为推动国债抛售的核心因素。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that the Liberal Democratic Party led by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to win an overwhelming victory, which indicates that the Japanese stock market may continue its gains, while the yen and Treasury Bond are facing further downward pressure.</p><p>According to NHK statistics, the Liberal Democratic Party has won an absolute majority of more than two-thirds of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives alone, and the ruling coalition has greatly expanded its advantage. This result far exceeded the expectations of some investors in recent weeks.</p><p>Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: \"The results of this election are clear, and Sanae Takaichi's economic stimulus policy has a clearer path to advance. For the Nikkei index, this is undoubtedly good news. However, the fiscal stimulus plan of the Liberal Democratic Party has essentially been approved, and the yen may be under greater pressure to depreciate.\"</p><p>In early trading in Asia on Monday, the yen exchange rate fluctuated within a relatively narrow range. As of press time, the yen exchange rate against the US dollar fell slightly to 157.61. Last week, the yen exchange rate fell by 1.6%, and it is still close to the 160 mark-this price triggered the Japanese authorities to intervene in the market to defend the local currency exchange rate.</p><p>Supported by the market's expectation that Takaichi Sanae will expand fiscal expenditure and stimulate economic growth, Japan's Topix Index closed at a record high last Friday, with an increase of over 8% this year; In the same period, the global developed market stock index barely rose by about 2%.</p><p>Rong Ren Goh, fixed income portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, said: \"The Liberal Democratic Party has a significant advantage in winning the election this time, although the market is not completely surprised by this. In the weeks before the election, the Japanese Treasury Bond yield and the yen exchange rate were both in a state of consolidation. Now that the election is settled, the market may return to the previous running trend.\"</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087102cda772694dad9ff933dab14867\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p>Many investors believe that the core thread of the market on Monday will revolve around the so-called \"high market trading\". There is also a reverse view in the market that needs to be verified: the greater Takaichi Sanae's advantage in winning the election, the smaller the pressure on him to launch economic stimulus policies.</p><p>At the stock market level, sectors such as national defense and nuclear energy have become the most concerned areas, and these sectors are highly consistent with the national investment agenda proposed by Takaichi Sanae.</p><p>Gerald Gan, chief investment officer of Singapore-based Reed Capital Partners, said: \"The Japanese stock market will take advantage of this victory to usher in a new round of gains. The defense, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and other fields that Sanae Takaichi plans to increase investment are likely to become the biggest beneficiary sector.\"</p><p>The depreciation of the yen is a double-edged sword for the Japanese economy: on the one hand, it pushes up the profits of Japanese export enterprises, on the other hand, it greatly squeezes the revenue and expenditure budgets of ordinary families.</p><p>Since sanae takaichi became the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in September last year, the yen exchange rate has continued to weaken. It was not until the end of last month that the decline of the exchange rate slowed down briefly due to the signal that the US and Japanese authorities might join hands to maintain the stability of the yen. However, in recent weeks, the signals released by the United States and Japan have been repeated, and the previous expectations of maintaining stability have also failed.</p><p>Neil Jones, managing director of sales and trading at TJM Europe, said in an email comment: \"The natural trend of the yen will be further depreciation. Last month, the yen fell below the 159 mark against the US dollar, hitting a new low. At present, the global foreign exchange market seems to be expecting that Japanese officials may take substantial intervention measures in the low range of the yen.\"</p><p>In the process of vote counting, takaichi sanae clarified his previous remarks about \"the benefits of yen depreciation\", saying that the relevant statements were taken out of context, and reiterated that his policy goal is to build an economic system that can withstand exchange rate fluctuations.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c120090f5c41dc90568f5222b40aec41\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"376\"/></p><p>As for Japanese Treasury Bond, which suffered a heavy setback in January this year and caused global market turmoil, it now faces the risk of further selling.</p><p>Schroeder Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Global asset management institutions such as asset management adopted a low-allocation strategy for Japanese Treasury Bond before the general election, especially the ultra-long-term Treasury Bond. 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There is room for maneuvering, giving it the energy to listen to the demands of the Japanese market.\"</p><p>However, overnight index swaps and short-term Treasury Bond yields have begun to adjust, reflecting the market's expectation that the Bank of Japan may make rate hike at the April interest rate meeting. The current market pricing shows that the probability of the BOJ's rate hike of 25 basis points in April is about 75%, while the rate hike of 25 basis points in June has been fully digested.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Takaichi Sanae won the Japanese general election! Japanese stocks may take advantage of the situation to hit new highs, the yen is approaching the 160 mark, and Treasury Bond is under selling pressure again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTakaichi Sanae won the Japanese general election! Japanese stocks may take advantage of the situation to hit new highs, the yen is approaching the 160 mark, and Treasury Bond is under selling pressure again\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-02-09 07:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that the Liberal Democratic Party led by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to win an overwhelming victory, which indicates that the Japanese stock market may continue its gains, while the yen and Treasury Bond are facing further downward pressure.</p><p>According to NHK statistics, the Liberal Democratic Party has won an absolute majority of more than two-thirds of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives alone, and the ruling coalition has greatly expanded its advantage. This result far exceeded the expectations of some investors in recent weeks.</p><p>Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: \"The results of this election are clear, and Sanae Takaichi's economic stimulus policy has a clearer path to advance. For the Nikkei index, this is undoubtedly good news. However, the fiscal stimulus plan of the Liberal Democratic Party has essentially been approved, and the yen may be under greater pressure to depreciate.\"</p><p>In early trading in Asia on Monday, the yen exchange rate fluctuated within a relatively narrow range. As of press time, the yen exchange rate against the US dollar fell slightly to 157.61. Last week, the yen exchange rate fell by 1.6%, and it is still close to the 160 mark-this price triggered the Japanese authorities to intervene in the market to defend the local currency exchange rate.</p><p>Supported by the market's expectation that Takaichi Sanae will expand fiscal expenditure and stimulate economic growth, Japan's Topix Index closed at a record high last Friday, with an increase of over 8% this year; In the same period, the global developed market stock index barely rose by about 2%.</p><p>Rong Ren Goh, fixed income portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, said: \"The Liberal Democratic Party has a significant advantage in winning the election this time, although the market is not completely surprised by this. In the weeks before the election, the Japanese Treasury Bond yield and the yen exchange rate were both in a state of consolidation. Now that the election is settled, the market may return to the previous running trend.\"</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/087102cda772694dad9ff933dab14867\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"410\"/></p><p>Many investors believe that the core thread of the market on Monday will revolve around the so-called \"high market trading\". There is also a reverse view in the market that needs to be verified: the greater Takaichi Sanae's advantage in winning the election, the smaller the pressure on him to launch economic stimulus policies.</p><p>At the stock market level, sectors such as national defense and nuclear energy have become the most concerned areas, and these sectors are highly consistent with the national investment agenda proposed by Takaichi Sanae.</p><p>Gerald Gan, chief investment officer of Singapore-based Reed Capital Partners, said: \"The Japanese stock market will take advantage of this victory to usher in a new round of gains. The defense, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and other fields that Sanae Takaichi plans to increase investment are likely to become the biggest beneficiary sector.\"</p><p>The depreciation of the yen is a double-edged sword for the Japanese economy: on the one hand, it pushes up the profits of Japanese export enterprises, on the other hand, it greatly squeezes the revenue and expenditure budgets of ordinary families.</p><p>Since sanae takaichi became the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in September last year, the yen exchange rate has continued to weaken. It was not until the end of last month that the decline of the exchange rate slowed down briefly due to the signal that the US and Japanese authorities might join hands to maintain the stability of the yen. However, in recent weeks, the signals released by the United States and Japan have been repeated, and the previous expectations of maintaining stability have also failed.</p><p>Neil Jones, managing director of sales and trading at TJM Europe, said in an email comment: \"The natural trend of the yen will be further depreciation. Last month, the yen fell below the 159 mark against the US dollar, hitting a new low. At present, the global foreign exchange market seems to be expecting that Japanese officials may take substantial intervention measures in the low range of the yen.\"</p><p>In the process of vote counting, takaichi sanae clarified his previous remarks about \"the benefits of yen depreciation\", saying that the relevant statements were taken out of context, and reiterated that his policy goal is to build an economic system that can withstand exchange rate fluctuations.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c120090f5c41dc90568f5222b40aec41\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"376\"/></p><p>As for Japanese Treasury Bond, which suffered a heavy setback in January this year and caused global market turmoil, it now faces the risk of further selling.</p><p>Schroeder Group,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Global asset management institutions such as asset management adopted a low-allocation strategy for Japanese Treasury Bond before the general election, especially the ultra-long-term Treasury Bond. In addition to sluggish market liquidity, the temporary reduction and exemption policy of food consumption tax proposed by Takaichi Sanae and the resurgence of market concerns about Japanese fiscal sustainability have become the core factors driving Treasury Bond's sell-off.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e69473c2b87934dbe52f39d557973f\" tg-width=\"646\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p>Despite concerns, the performance of Japanese Treasury Bond picked up last week, and the upward pressure on yields eased, especially the decline in ultra-long-term Treasury Bond yields.</p><p>Masanari Takada, quantitative and derivatives strategist at JPMorgan Securities Japan, said: \"Although the results of this election have made the sentiment of Japanese market participants tense, the overwhelming victory of the Liberal Democratic Party may bring more political operations to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. There is room for maneuvering, giving it the energy to listen to the demands of the Japanese market.\"</p><p>However, overnight index swaps and short-term Treasury Bond yields have begun to adjust, reflecting the market's expectation that the Bank of Japan may make rate hike at the April interest rate meeting. The current market pricing shows that the probability of the BOJ's rate hike of 25 basis points in April is about 75%, while the rate hike of 25 basis points in June has been fully digested.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1402919.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/749cdf8953c5292344c548c9a9e85169","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1402919.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2610250584","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗领导的自民党有望取得压倒性胜利，这预示着日本股市或将延续涨势，而日元和国债则面临进一步下跌的压力。据NHK统计，自民党在众议院465个席位中已单独赢得三分之二以上的绝对多数，执政联盟也大幅扩大了优势。这一结果远超部分投资者近几周的预期。KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示：“此次选举结果明朗，高市早苗的经济刺激政策也有了更清晰的推进路径，对日经指数而言，这无疑是利好消息。但自民党的财政刺激计划实质上已获批落地，日元或将承受更大贬值压力。”周一亚市早盘，日元汇率在相对窄幅区间内震荡。截至发稿，日元兑美元汇率微跌至157.61。上周日元汇率累计下跌1.6%，目前仍逼近160关口——这一价位曾触发日本当局入市干预，捍卫本币汇率。受市场对高市早苗扩大财政支出、拉动经济增长的预期支撑，日本东证指数上周五收于历史新高，今年以来涨幅已超8%;而同期全球发达市场股票指数的涨幅仅勉强达到2%左右。Eastspring Investments固定收益投资组合经理Rong Ren Goh称：“自民党此次胜选优势显著，尽管市场对此并非完全意外。大选前的数周内，日本国债收益率与日元汇率均处于盘整状态，如今选举落定，市场或将回归此前的运行趋势。”众多投资者认为，周一市场的核心主线将围绕所谓的“高市交易”展开。市场中也存在一种待验证的逆向观点：高市早苗的胜选优势越大，其推出经济刺激政策的压力反而可能越小。股市层面，国防、核能等板块成为最受关注的领域，这类板块与高市早苗提出的国家投资议程高度契合。总部位于新加坡的Reed Capital Partners首席投资官Gerald Gan表示：“日本股市将借此次胜选迎来新一轮上涨，高市早苗计划加大投入的国防、人工智能、半导体等领域，大概率会成为最大受益板块。”日元贬值对日本经济而言是一把双刃剑：一方面推升了日本出口企业的利润，另一方面却大幅挤压普通家庭的收支预算。自去年9月高市早苗出任自民党总裁以来，日元汇率持续走弱，直至上月末，因美日两国当局或联手维稳日元的信号出现，汇率跌势才短暂放缓。但近几周，美日双方释放的信号反复，此前的维稳预期也随之落空。TJM Europe销售和交易董事总经理Neil Jones在邮件评论中称：“日元的自然走势将是进一步贬值。上月日元兑美元跌破159关口，创阶段新低，当前全球外汇市场似乎都在预期，日本官方或将在日元低位区间采取实质性的干预措施。”在选票统计过程中，高市早苗针对此前自己有关“日元贬值好处”的言论作出澄清，称相关表述被断章取义，并重申其施政目标是打造能够抵御汇率波动的经济体系。至于今年1月遭遇重挫、并引发全球市场震荡的日本国债，如今再面临进一步抛售的风险。施罗德集团、摩根大通资产管理等全球资管机构在大选前均对日本国债采取低配策略，尤其是超长期限国债。除市场流动性低迷外，高市早苗提出的食品消费税临时减免政策，以及市场对日本财政可持续性的担忧再起，均成为推动国债抛售的核心因素。尽管担忧犹存，上周日本国债表现有所回暖，收益率的上行压力有所缓解，超长期限国债收益率的回落尤为明显。摩根大通证券日本公司量化与衍生品策略师Masanari Takada表示：“此次选举结果虽让国债市场参与者的情绪趋于紧张，但自民党的压倒性胜利，或能为高市早苗首相带来更多政治操作空间，使其有精力倾听国债市场的诉求。”不过，隔夜指数互换与短期国债收益率已开始调整，反映出市场对日本央行或将在4月议息会议上加息的预期升温。目前市场定价显示，日本央行4月加息25个基点的概率约为75%，而6月加息25个基点则已被完全消化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":99,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}