To The Moon

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 and full-year results on Friday, February 13, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.

The company is currently in a high-stakes transition from a pandemic-focused entity to a diversified biotech platform. While recent "pre-announcements" in January have already shared some high-level figures, the official report will be the definitive signal for 2026 sentiment.

Moderna’s (MRNA) Fiscal Q3 2025 earnings, reported on November 6, 2025, were a pivotal moment for the company. Despite a steep year-over-year revenue decline, the report was widely viewed as a "win" because the company demonstrated it could aggressively manage its transition into a post-pandemic business.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

Moderna significantly outperformed Wall Street's low expectations, primarily through radical cost-cutting.

Key Performance Drivers:

• mNEXSPIKE Launch: The new COVID-19 vaccine performed well in the U.S. retail market, capturing a 42% market share even as the overall market for COVID boosters shrank by roughly 30%.

• The "Cost-Cutting" Engine: Moderna slashed R&D spending by 30% and manufacturing costs by 60% year-over-year. This $1 billion outperformance in cost reduction was the primary reason for the EPS beat.

• mRESVIA (RSV) Struggles: While COVID sales held up, the RSV vaccine only generated $2 million in sales, highlighting the intense competition from GSK and Pfizer.

The Guidance: A Reality Check

Moderna narrowed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $1.6 billion – $2.0 billion (down from $1.5B – $2.2B).

While narrowing guidance usually signals stability, the "lesson" here was in the composition of that revenue. The company lowered its U.S. sales expectations but raised its international expectations, signaling that domestic demand is hitting a "floor" faster than anticipated.

Lessons Learnt from the Guidance

The Q3 report and subsequent guidance taught investors three critical lessons about Moderna's future:

Efficiency is the new Growth

For years, MRNA was a "growth at all costs" company. Q3 2025 proved that management has successfully pivoted to financial discipline. The lesson for investors: Earnings beats now come from the "bottom line" (saving money) rather than the "top line" (selling more).

The COVID Floor is Low, but Real

The guidance confirmed that COVID-19 has transitioned into a "seasonal endemic" market. The lesson is that the baseline revenue for MRNA is now much lower than the pandemic heights, and the company must survive on a $1.5B–$2B annual revenue base until its oncology and rare disease pipelines mature.

RSV is a Crowded Room

The guidance and the $2M sales figure for mRESVIA were a "cold shower" for those expecting an immediate second blockbuster. The lesson: mRNA technology alone isn't enough to win markets with established competitors. Moderna will need to rely on "combination vaccines" (Flu+COVID) to differentiate itself in the future.

The Path to 2028 is a Tightrope

Moderna reaffirmed its goal to break even by 2028. The Q3 guidance showed that this timeline is entirely dependent on hitting cost-saving targets rather than speculative sales growth. If expenses creep back up, the 2028 target—and the stock price—will likely collapse.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors should look beyond the headline revenue to these specific "health indicators":

• 2026 Revenue Guidance (The "Growth Anchor"): Management recently reiterated a target of up to 10% revenue growth for 2026. Watch for any tightening or softening of this range, especially given the recent FDA "Refusal-to-File" letter regarding their seasonal flu vaccine (mRNA-1010).

• Operating Expense Reductions: Moderna is under intense pressure to stop "burning" cash. They are targeting $4.9 billion in GAAP operating expenses for 2026 (down from ~$5.1B in 2025). Any sign that costs are stickier than expected could trigger a sell-off.

• Cash Runway & Breakeven Timeline: The company aims for cash breakeven by 2028. Investors will watch the Q4 ending cash balance (estimated at $8.1 billion) to ensure the company won't need a dilutive capital raise before that date.

• Non-COVID Revenue Split: Watch for the sales performance of mRESVIA (RSV vaccine). Investors want to see if non-COVID products can successfully offset the ~20–40% decline in Spikevax (COVID) demand.

Recent "Wildcards" (February 2026)

Two major events occurred just days before this earnings call that will dominate the Q&A session:

1. FDA Refusal-to-File (Feb 10): The FDA issued a letter regarding Moderna's flu vaccine (mRNA-1010). This creates uncertainty around their 2026 product launch timeline.

2. Mexico Agreement (Feb 10): A new long-term strategic deal with the Mexican government provides a rare bit of positive commercial momentum heading into the call.

Moderna (MRNA) Price Target

Based on 20 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Moderna in the last 3 months. The average price target is $38.51 with a high forecast of $135.00 and a low forecast of $12.00. The average price target represents a -4.95% change from the last price of $40.51.

Short-Term Trading Analysis

Opportunity for Trading:

Volatility Play: MRNA often sees double-digit percentage moves post-earnings. With a Short Interest of ~15%, a positive surprise regarding the oncology pipeline (melanoma 5-year data) could trigger a short squeeze.

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) had 10-Day Implied Volatility (Mean) of 0.8755 for 2026-02-10.

The "Relief Rally": If management provides a firm date for the FDA re-submission of the flu vaccine, the stock may recover the losses seen earlier this week.

Options Sentiment: Currently, traders are leaning toward calls over puts, suggesting the market may have already "priced in" the bad news from the recent FDA letter.

Note: MRNA is currently trading significantly above its 200-day moving average (~$28) but well below its 52-week high ($55). This creates a technical "no-man's land" where the earnings report will act as the primary catalyst for the next trend.

Summary

Moderna (MRNA) enters its Q4 2025 earnings on February 13, 2026, amidst a mix of financial recovery and regulatory setbacks. After a "pre-announcement" in January raised the 2025 revenue outlook to $1.9 billion (up from $1.6B–$2.0B range), the stock gained momentum, only to be hit this week by an FDA "Refusal-to-File" for its flu vaccine.

1. Key Metrics & Financials

Wall Street expects a Q4 loss of approximately $2.60–$2.79 per share on revenues of $611M–$661M.

• Cash Reserves: Watch the reported cash balance (estimated at $8.1 billion). This is the lifeblood for their "cash breakeven by 2028" target.

• Operating Expenses: Management aims to lower GAAP expenses to $4.9 billion for 2026. Investors will verify if the Q4 burn rate aligns with this $200M+ reduction goal.

• mRESVIA (RSV) Performance: After a weak Q3 ($2M sales), any growth in RSV revenue will be seen as a sign that Moderna can compete against Pfizer and GSK.

2. Strategic Catalyst: The "Flu Flap"

The biggest focus will be the FDA Refusal-to-File (RTF) for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine.

• The Risk: Since their 2026 growth target (up to 10%) relies on new product launches, a delay in the flu (and flu/COVID combo) vaccine could put their "breakeven" timeline in jeopardy.

• The Rebuttal: Watch if CEO Stéphane Bancel provides a clear "Type A" meeting date with the FDA to resolve the trial design dispute.

3. Short-Term Trading Opportunity

With Short Interest at ~15%, MRNA is a prime candidate for a post-earnings squeeze or slide:

• The Bull Play: If management defends their 10% growth guidance despite the FDA letter and highlights the 5-year melanoma data (49% reduction in death/recurrence), the stock could reclaim the $50 level.

• The Bear Play: If guidance is lowered or the "Mexico Agreement" is seen as insufficient to offset domestic COVID declines, the stock may retest its 200-day moving average near $28.

Summary: The report is no longer about COVID sales — it’s about whether Moderna’s cost-cutting can outrun its regulatory delays.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Moderna would be able to show efficiency in its 2026 guidance execution and can MRNA outrun its regulatory delays by its cost-cutting measures.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.