To The Moon

$MONTAGE TECH(06809)$  

$Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$  

$Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$  

The latest Nikkei Asia report (3 February 2026) highlights how the AI-fueled global memory supercycle is enabling China's leading domestic memory producers—ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) for DRAM and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) for NAND flash—to pursue their most aggressive capacity expansions yet, aiming to narrow the gap with market leaders Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and KIOXIA.

CXMT (currently holding ~11.1% of global DRAM capacity per Yole Group, projected to rise to ~13.9% by 2027) is massively expanding in Shanghai, with the new plants' total capacity expected to be 2–3 times larger than its Hefei base. The focus includes standard DRAM for servers, PCs, automotive, and consumer electronics, alongside dedicated lines for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to support AI. Equipment installation is targeted for H2 2026, with production ramping in 2027. Existing Hefei and Beijing facilities are at full capacity, driven by robust domestic demand from clients like Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo. CXMT has successfully produced DDR4/LPDDR4 and is migrating to advanced DDR5-class, while pursuing HBM to address U.S. restrictions on foreign supplies.

YMTC (~12% NAND wafer capacity share in 2025, potentially reaching 15% by 2028) is building its third Wuhan fab (production start eyed for 2027). Critically, 50% of this new plant's capacity will shift to DRAM production in addition to NAND—a significant diversification. YMTC is also partnering with a local assembler for HBM targeted at AI. Sources indicate YMTC has mitigated U.S. export controls on advanced equipment by optimizing older tools and has completed its own DRAM development (started over two years ago). This follows its near-miss as an Apple NAND supplier in 2022, halted by Entity List addition, though Beijing's localization drive and market surges have fueled subsequent growth.

These expansions primarily address domestic Chinese demand under government-supported self-reliance efforts, though they could ease some global pressure long-term. As Yole Group's Gary Huang notes, the crunch—driven by AI/HBM priorities outstripping conventional memory supply—has improved finances for emerging players, enabling healthier pricing and capex while encouraging diversification.

This context amplifies broader industry dynamics: Suppliers prioritize high-margin AI products, causing acute shortages, triple-digit price surges (hundreds to thousands of percent YoY in spots), shorter contracts, and allocation challenges for consumer/enterprise devices—disrupting 2026 planning across smartphones, PCs, and beyond.

Apple's reported exploration of YMTC (for NAND) and CXMT (for DRAM) as potential partners—per sources like Ijiwei and covered by Wccftech—functions as a classic leverage tactic to counter the "big three" and KIOXIA's hardball negotiation tactics amid shortages and price hikes. While YMTC's prior iPhone NAND verification stalled due to 2022 Entity List placement and geopolitical risks, recent shifts (e.g., brief removal of both CXMT and YMTC from the Pentagon's Section 1260H restricted list in early February 2026, though the update was withdrawn shortly after amid controversy) could theoretically reduce some barriers for consumer-grade adoption. However, YMTC remains on the U.S. Commerce Department's Entity List with ongoing export controls, and hurdles like rigorous quality/yield validation, performance consistency for premium devices, and persistent U.S.-China tensions make a full pivot unlikely for Apple in high-volume iPhones soon.

Other PC giants are already advancing: HP and Dell have begun qualifying CXMT DRAM (with HP eyeing non-U.S. markets if shortages persist into mid-2026), while Acer and Asus are directing Chinese contract partners to source local memory for notebooks—prioritizing supply security over major cost savings in the crunch.

The sector outlook stays bullish for at least the next two years (into 2027+), with capacity holders emerging as "winners" in an AI-dominated landscape.

Montage Technology complements this ecosystem by supplying high-performance interconnect ICs—such as PCIe® retimers featuring proprietary SerDes IP and advanced signal conditioning capabilities. These products effectively compensate for channel attenuation and mitigate jitter sources to enhance signal integrity and extend the reach of high-speed signals, thus providing reliable and scalable PCIe® interconnect solutions for servers, storage appliances, and hardware accelerators. Montage offers a comprehensive lineup, including PCIe® 6.x/CXL® 3.x Retimer (e.g., M88RT61632, 16-lane, recently launched in AEC form for next-gen data centers in January 2026), PCIe® 5.0/CXL® 2.0 Retimer, and PCIe® 4.0 Retimer. Compliant with PCIe® and CXL® specifications, these demonstrate exceptional power efficiency and low latency in interoperability tests with CPUs, PCIe® switches, NVMe SSDs, GPUs, and NICs.

The Memory eXpander Controller (MXC) is a Type 3 Compute Express Link® (CXL®) DRAM memory controller (e.g., M88MX6852 supporting CXL 3.1, up to 64 GT/s, DDR5 at 8000 MT/s) that delivers high-bandwidth, low-latency interconnect between the CPU and CXL-based devices. It enables memory pooling and sharing across multiple hosts, streamlines software stacks, and reduces total cost of ownership (TCO) for data centers—ideal for deployment in Add-in Cards (AIC), Backplanes, or EDSFF memory modules to support scalable memory expansion for intelligent computing, deep learning, and machine learning workloads.

Montage also offers a comprehensive suite of timing solutions, including clock generators and clock buffers widely used in data centers, communication, consumer, medical, and automotive electronics. With deep expertise in mixed-signal design, core IO technology, and PLL modules, these incorporate advanced features like digital architecture PLL, low-noise IO, and high power supply rejection ratio LDO, delivering industry-leading performance and power efficiency, backed by rigorous quality control and optimized supply chain for superior reliability and availability.

Additionally, the Jintide® server platform encompasses Jintide® CPU (high-performance x86 server. 

Montage Technology Comparison with Credo Technology Group and Astera Labs: 

🇨🇳 Montage Technology

Core Identity: Memory-interface & server interconnect specialist

Where Montage Focuses:

DDR4/DDR5 clock drivers, registers (RCD/MDB/CKD)

Memory buffers

PCIe 6.x / CXL 3.x retimers

Memory eXpander Controller (CXL Type 3)

PMICs

Timing solutions

Jintide® server platform

Position in AI stack:

CPU ↔ Memory optimization

Montage improves:

Signal integrity inside the server

CPU-to-memory bandwidth

CXL memory pooling

Power efficiency

It sits inside the server chassis, very close to the memory subsystem.

🇺🇸 Credo Technology Group

Core Identity: High-speed SerDes & Active Electrical Cable (AEC) leader

Where Credo Focuses:

224G/112G SerDes

Active Electrical Cables (AECs) (rack-to-rack)

Scale-up retimers

AI cluster networking

Ethernet / UALink connectivity

Position in AI stack:

Server ↔ Switch ↔ Rack ↔ Rack

Credo dominates:

External connectivity

AI cluster interconnect

Hyperscale GPU networking

It sits between servers and across racks.

🇺🇸 Astera Labs

Core Identity: Intelligent connectivity platform provider

Where Astera Focuses:

PCIe retimers

CXL interconnect

Smart fabric switches

COSMOS software management layer

NVLink fusion solutions

Position in AI stack:

System-level orchestration layer

Astera provides:

Hardware + software

Fabric optimization

Heterogeneous AI system interoperability

It sits across both:

Internal server connectivity

External AI fabric architecture

🔎 Where They Overlap

1️⃣ PCIe Retimers

Montage and Astera overlap directly here.

Credo overlaps partially (retimers for scale-up).

But:

Montage → memory-centric PCIe/CXL

Astera → broader PCIe fabric orchestration

Credo → scale-up + cable ecosystem

Overlap: moderate, not full substitution

2️⃣ CXL

Montage and Astera both play in CXL.

Montage → CXL memory expansion (MXC controller)

Astera → CXL fabric + software management

Overlap: complementary more than competitive

3️⃣ SerDes IP

All three use high-speed SerDes.

But:

Credo = SerDes is the core product

Montage = SerDes is embedded inside memory interconnect

Astera = SerDes supports broader connectivity platform

Overlap: technology-level, not business-model-level

Key Insights:Credo shows the steepest acceleration (>200% projected for FY2026), driven by AEC dominance and AI cluster ramps.

Astera delivers consistent high growth (115% in 2025) with strong Q4/Q1 guidance, supported by diversified platform traction.

Montage maintains solid mid-50%+ growth in 2025 (fueled by DDR5 interconnects, PCIe/CXL retimers, MXC, and Jintide), with more moderate ~30–33% projected for 2026, reflecting its established position but China-related exposure.

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