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Burry vs PLTR, NVDA & ORCL. How's it, so far?
@JC888：
On 24 Dec 2025, I posted about Michael Burry’s short trading on PLTR and NVDA. Click here ! to read ! It’s coming to 2 months soon. With the dust settled, it is timely to revisit and determine how “accurate” Burry has been with his “Big Shot 2.0” attack. On 10 Feb 2026, famed short seller and investor Michael Burry was taking aim at $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ yet again. Known as Cassandra Unchained on X (former Twitter), Burry posted an image of PLTR stock with a rudimentary drawing of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. (see below) Burry's Cassandra Unchained take on PLTR A red arrow labeled "Left Shoulder" points to the left side of the chart, while another red arrow on the right side is labeled "Right Shoulder". In the middle is a large "Head" to complete the pattern. He also included the Fibonacci sequenxe, apparently to show he really means business, and wrote, “I am working on something $PLTR”. It was natural that X-users reacted with disbelief:. People quickly pointed out Burry's past mistakes, such as his failed bets against $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.. His poorly timed "Sell" tweet. One critic suggested Burry was simply a "one-hit wonder" who got lucky once and then lost everyone's money. Another user, @aleabitoreddit, claimed Burry’s recent analysis of PLTR proved he was just lucky in the past. In unison, they argued that his chart analysis ignored actual business facts and was no better than reading a horoscope. What does his cryptic message means ? Speculation is that he may be referring to a new short. Or simply a continuation of Burry’s Q3 2025 position (as of 30 Sep 2025) via “Put” options on roughly 5 million shares with a notional value near $912 million. His Q4 2025 filing is not public yet and should be out by Sat, 14 Feb 2026. Any recent changes remain undisclosed. The latest bearish commentary suggests his stance has not flipped. If anything, it looks like he is leaning in and stirring the pot further. The Aftermath. Astrology or not, PLTR sold off the very next day. On Tue, 12 Feb 2026, shares dropped nearly -3%, to $139 from an all-time high of $207.(see below) PLTR - February 2026 performance Its just another reminder that Burry can still move markets. If he is still holding the same put position as before, then he is sitting on meaningful gains with little incentive to exit as the AI trade and the broader tech sector continue to wobble. The only only near-term catalyst that could meaningfully reverse Burry’s sentiment may be NVDA’s quarterly earnings due on Wed, 25 Feb 2026, after market closing. Then again, as witnessed with other mega-cap tech giants (namely $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ), beating their quarterly earnings still does not guarantee that their stock's prices will rise correspondingly. (see below) GOOG & AMZN Q4 Earnnigs. Both GOOG and AMZN reported their 2025’s last quarter earnings on 4 Feb 2026 and 5 Feb 2026 respectively, after market closing. (see above) Despite a respectable set of earnings where: Alphabet: Investors witness a "double beat", where the company exceeded both revenue and earnings estimates. Revenue: came in at $113.8 billion vs market consensus $111.4 billion vs Q4 2024’s $96.5 billion. Earnings per share (diluted): was $2.85 /share vs market consensus $2.64 vs Q4 2024’s $2.15 /share. Amazon: Delivered record-breaking revenue that beat market estimates, but missed its earnings per share targets as profits were weighed down by $2.4 billion in one-time legal and severance charges. Revenue: came in at $213.4 billion vs market expectations $211.3 billion vs Q4 2024’s $187.8 billion. Earnings per share (diluted): was $1.95 /share vs market expectations $1.97 vs Q4 2024’s $1.86. Both stocks failed to rise after earnings were out due to one common reason - their massive 2026 Capex spooked traders and investors alike. GOOG planned to spend about $175–$185 billion, roughly doubling 2025 spend, that is far above prior expectations, spooking market on multi‑year free cash flow and margin pressure. It also explains why GOOG has decided to issue a 100-year bond amounting to $31.5 billion. AMZN on the other hand plans to utilize their unmatched operational scale (retail + ads) to fund most of the bill, while keeping a "shelf" of debt ready to tap into, just in case. It will take time and a lot of investors’ confidence restoration before both stocks could reverse its recent downwards trend. Will it come to pass, only time will tell. Are Burry’s Bets Winning ? (1) Palantir. Burry's AI bubble thesis is looking prescient on PLTR. PLTR stock is down -35% since he entered the trade, and he's not walking away from it. Based on this technical chart on X (see above), he believes this formation signals that PLTR could fall another -40% to -60% from current levels and he sees the next support level a little below $100, followed by a "landing area" slightly above $50. This is even lower than the most bearish price target on PLTR that is at $70 currently. Considering Burry;s earlier stance on PLTR is “vindicated”, a drop to the $50s no longer seems too unlikely. After all, investors are still paying a triple-digit earnings premium for PLTR, no? Not in agreement. D.A. Davidson Luckily, not everyone agrees with Burry's assessment. D.A. Davidson’s analysts reaffirmed their “neutral” rating and $180 price target on PLTR. The analysts said: "We read all 10,000 words in Burry's newsletter and found no new reason to worry about PLTR. Also, Burry's post contained "no new evidence or argument" that would change analysts’ view of the company. Analysts cite the company's (i) accelerating growth and (ii) strong cash flow margins as evidence that Burry's critique is flawed. Norges Bank Investment Management. Another PLTR’s supporter is Norway’s sovereign wealth fund - Norges Bank Investment Management . It sees a runway for the stock instead. The Nordic investment behemoth disclosed in its Q4 2025’s filing, a $5.15 billion new stake in PLTR, effectively turning a technical debate into a live battle between chart skeptics and institutional conviction. It may come across as small almost negligible investment, but for a fund holding 1,577 US stocks, this places PLTR roughly in its Top 20 positions. Need I say more ? In short, Norges' timing investment in PLTR, indicates it views the AI leader - less as a trading stock and more as a strategic data platform with durable defense and enterprise franchises. (2) Nvidia. The #1 AI chip-maker is still trading sideways, after reveal on Burry’s $186.6 million in NVDA “Put” options. Michael Burry's Q3 filing had him betting 13.5% of his portfolio against NVDA; where he later revealed (on X) that his “Puts” had a strike price of $110, expiring on 17 Dec 2027. There’s still a long way to go, and no one really know (a) what Burry paid for these shorts or (b) when he bought them during Q3 2025. However, what is known though is these NVDA “Puts” are not doing too well yet. (see below) Above is a snapshot of NVDA from 01 Oct 2025 till 13 Feb 2026. To date, it has fallen by a mere -2.37%, after peaking at $207.04 /share on 29 Oct 2025. Based on Friday’s closing of $182.78, there’s still a +39.82% “upside” vs Burry’s $110 short on NVDA. And there’s still 673 calendar days to go before Burry’s short expires. Who can tell what’s going to happen in between the vast time span, no ? Earlier in January 2026, Burry said: His Nvidia bet was the most concentrated way to express a bearish view on AI trade. NVDA is cheap to short since it is the most loved, and least doubted, meaning its “Put” options are relatively cheap compared to more controversial AI names. On top of that, NVDA's valuation is based purely on AI. Meaning, when shorting NVDA, investors are not betting against a strong advertising arm of the business. Burry’s arguments sounds “good” in theory. They have yet to see success, unlike PLTR’s shorts. With NVDA trading at 24x forward earnings, demand for NVDA's chips still going strong and the “hundreds of billions” in sales that needs fulfilling, the constant demand prevents NVDA business from falling too low. As such, many believe Burry’s “Put” on make him lose money by year-end 2027, not unless the expiry lines up with a cyclical downturn. What is that probability happening ? Mmm… (3) Oracle. On 9 Jan 2026, Burry disclosed on Substack that he has “Put” options on $Oracle(ORCL)$ and has been shorting it for the past 6 months. He did not reveal what the strike prices were or what his position looks like though, but it's almost a given that he's making money off of his puts. (see below) As of 13 Feb 2026 ORCL peaked on 10 Sep 2025 at $328.33 /share. On Fri, 13 Feb 2026, it closed the week at $160.14, losing about -51.23% or -$121.81 /share. When questioned about Oracle's AI buildout, Burry said: Market was overly optimistic on ORCL, and the gains were wiped out rather quickly. More importantly, he did not like how ORCL is positioned or the investments it is making. As of early January 2026, ORCL has around $95 billion of debt outstanding, making it the largest corporate issuer outside the financial sector in the Bloomberg high-grade index. Summary. With 2 of 3 bets in the bag, Burry seems to be vindicated and are doing quite well. His “Big Short 2.0” is off to a great start so far. Only time will tell if his doubling down ends up being a mistake. If and when the AI-storm blows over, I think PLTR will mount a recovery in quick succession. If that happens, Burry’s bet against PLTR may backfire. NVDA, again we will know after 25 Feb 2026 earnings release. Burry’s eventual win could be whittled down to ORCL only; provided ORCL remains depressed. What do you think ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. Will S&P 500 Bottoms with Q4 Earnings ending ? XLV - Answer to Volatile US Market & Strong Jobs ? Storm On The Horizon for META. GOOG too ? Do you think PLTR will outperform Burry’s bounty bet on the softwear AI company ’? Do you think ORCL will partial-recover when it shows Wall Street, revenue is streaming in? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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