To The Moon

The tariff saga took another sharp turn Monday.

Markets rallied Friday after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled Trump’s prior duties illegal. But sentiment reversed quickly after Trump announced a new 15% global tariff, reigniting trade tensions.

The result: broad market losses.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.7%

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : -1.0%

• Nasdaq Composite: -1.1%

• Hot Stock: PayPal Holdings (+5.8%) Biggest Loser: International Business Machines (-13.2%)

  Best Sector: Consumer Staples (+1.5%) Worst Sector: Financials (-3.3%)

A New Layer of Uncertainty

Investors are reacting to what strategists describe as a renewed uncertainty shock.

The abrupt and sweeping nature of the new 15% tariffs, combined with unanswered questions about how companies will be repaid for previously invalidated levies, has left businesses scrambling once again. Rather than closing the trade chapter, the latest move appears to open a new one.

Markets now face:

• Legal ambiguity over prior tariff refunds

• Fresh global trade friction

• Corporate margin uncertainty

• Potential inflation spillovers

While volatility may not match last April’s initial tariff shock, policy unpredictability is likely to remain a theme for the rest of 2026.

$SPX Skew

Nvidia Earnings: Distraction or Catalyst?

Some investors are hoping $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ can shift attention back to fundamentals when it reports earnings Wednesday.

However, enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has grown more fragile. Rising concerns that AI may disrupt more industries than it benefits have complicated the narrative.

With markets already jittery, even strong results may face heightened scrutiny.

Software Stocks Slide as AI Anxiety Deepens

Software stocks endured another difficult session.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell nearly 5%, reflecting mounting skepticism toward companies viewed as vulnerable to AI disruption.

Earnings this week from major software names could prove pivotal:

• Workday

• $Salesforce.com(CRM)$

• Snowflake

• Intuit

Investors want proof that these firms are monetizing AI, not being displaced by it.

Recent commentary circulating on Substack from Citrini Research added to anxiety, contributing to outsized declines in stocks including:

• $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$

• $American Express(AXP)$

• Uber Technologies

The speed of the selloff suggests AI-related fears are deeply embedded in market psychology.

Private Credit and Alternative Asset Managers Under Pressure

Concerns also spread to alternative asset managers with potential exposure to software firms through private credit.

Recent redemption restrictions at Blue Owl Capital intensified scrutiny across the space, dragging down peers such as:

• $Blackstone Group LP(BX)$

• KKR

Investors are increasingly sensitive to liquidity risks tied to technology valuations.

What to Watch Next

Markets will monitor:

• Nvidia earnings

• Software earnings momentum

• Trade policy implementation details

• Consumer sentiment data

• The Case-Shiller Home Price Index

With trade uncertainty resurfacing and AI anxiety intensifying, investors may continue to see rangebound trading punctuated by sharp sector rotations…

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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