To The Moon

Intro.

I have a ”confession”.

Whenever 13F filings by major financial institutions are released, I make it a point to read and share what I have learnt.

Although many regarded the data ‘outdated’ as it reflects an institution’s purchase/s made 3 months ago ± 45 days, the allowable time for each institution to file their 13Fs respectively.

I see it differently though, the information can still be use as a starting point for personal research.

Just not as real-time signal for "copy” trading, that’s all.

One of few institutions that I follow is Bridgewaters Associates, the world’s largest institutional hedge fund and global macro investment manager.

The last time I shared its 13F filing was on 11 Nov 2026 - Ray Dalio 13F Top Buys - IVV, SPY & NVDA. Follow ? (click on title to read).

Q4 2025’s 13F.

Fast forward to 13 Feb 2026, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has disclosed fresh changes to his equity holdings thru the latest 13F filing for the quarter ended 31 Dec 2025.

A review of the filing shows a modest increase in overall exposure and notable shifts among top positions at Bridgewater Associates.

The firm’s reported market value rose to $27.4 billion, up from $25.5 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting net inflows equivalent to 4.63% of total portfolio value.

During the period, Bridgewater:

• Initiated 191 new positions.

• Added to 450 existing holdings.

• Fully exiting 165 stocks.

• Trimmed 395 others. 

Portfolio turnover stood at +29.54%, with alternative turnover at +20.49%, signaling active rebalancing.

Its top 10 holdings accounted for 36.33% of total assets.

Last but not least, it is very interesting to note that Bridgewater has the following holding patterns:

• For all securities in the portfolio, average holding period is approximately 6.88 quarters.

• For the top 20 convictions in the portfolio, average holding period is about 9 quarters (roughly 2.25 years).

Dalio’s Top picks 

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remained central to the portfolio.

What Were Bought.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

• This ETF that tracks the S&P 500 is still Bridgewater’s #1 investment.

• Currently, it makes up 11.08% of the firm's total portfolio, a significant jump from Q3 2025’s 6.69%. (see below)

• This increase happened because Bridgewater bought over 1.89 million more shares, growing its position by nearly 74%.

ETF $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ is still ranked #2 at 10.455% of Bridgewater portfolio.

This was followed by $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ at 2.63%.

In Q4 2025, Bridgewater has increased its exposure to AI semiconductor giant NVDA, adding over 1.35 million shares, lifting its position by +54.01%.

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ also saw a substantial increase, with the stake rising 73.18%. 

$Oracle(ORCL)$ also recorded one of the largest percentage increases in the portfolio, with shares surging more than +361% QoQ.

$Micron Technology(MU)$ and Newmont (NYSE: NEM) were also notable additions, with MU’s stake rising sharply from a negligible prior allocation.

What Were Sold.

On selling side, Bridgewater trimmed several large holdings in 2 sectors - Technology and Communications. (see below)

Bridgewater reduced its position in:

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ by more than 1.0 million shares, a -40.06% cut.

• Reduced its Microsoft (MSFT) exposure by -10.31%.

• Holdings in Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Visa (NYSE: V) were also scaled back.

• Uber Technologies (UBER) also emerged as one of the top sellers during the quarter.

• Fiserv and Meta Platforms were likewise reduced.

13F Analysis. 

It is obvious that in Q4, Bridgewater has pivoted to a more defensive stance.

Topping its holdings are 2 ETFs, namely SPY & IVV, each making up more than 10% of total holdings. (see below)

This comes as Dalio increasingly warns of an impending economic downturn where he:

• Cautioned that the world stands “on the brink” of a capital war, where geopolitical tensions, (especially between US & China), could weaponize money flows through (i) sanctions, (ii) asset freezes, and (iii) capital controls.

• Described this emerging “bearish” force as a major threat to global markets, that are already flashing warning signs.

Compounding the risks is US’s runaway national debt that has exceeded $38 trillion and continues to grow. (see below)

This will force the Trump government and US central bank, to choose between two very difficult options:

(1) Print Money (Devaluation path).

The government can have US central bank create new money to buy its own debt.

While this prevents an immediate default, it floods the economy with cash, that lowers the value of the dollar and triggers high inflation.

Essentially, the debt is "paid back" with money that is worth much less than when it was borrowed.

(2) Confront a potential debt crisis.

The government can choose not to print money and itry to pay off the debt through (a) existing tax revenue or (b) by cutting spending.

With the debt is so large, Trump may not be able to find enough buyers for its bonds; given its antagonist action against its allies, that sours any chance of other governments bailing it out.

This leads to a bond market “heart attack" where interest rates spike, the economy crashes, and the country faces a deflationary depression or a restructuring of its debts (a "hard" default).

Dalio has likened the setup to past bubbles and economic turning points.

This is why he urges diversification - in particular allocating 10% to 15% to Gold, as a hedge against dollar weakness and systemic shocks, an action Bridgewater has undertaken.

My viewpoints (mine only).

After all that has been said and reported, what exactly is Ray Dalio / Bridgewater Associates’s investment strategy telling us, until the next 13F reveal on or around 15 May 2026. (see above)

For starters, rebalancing in late 2025 and early 2026 suggests a strategic pivot from "general growth" to "targeted” infrastructure.

Below are 3 primary insights looking at Bridgewater’s ‘latest’ macroeconomic view:

(1) Shift from AI "Hype" to "Hardware"

The most telling move is its aggressive increase in NVDA and MU while slashing stakes in GOOG and MSFT.

• Bridgewater believes the AI market has entered a "resource grab" phase, where building infrastructure has become, a "competitive necessity" for nations and companies.

• To capitalize on this massive Capex boom, it is prioritizing "picks and shovels" (hardware like semiconductors & memory) over software companies that are still struggling to turn AI into clear profits.

• This is evident in its "AI arms race" participation by increasing its stake in NVDA by +54%.

(2) Single Point of Failure safeguards.

While Bridgewater increased its exposure to certain tech names, it also significantly boosted its holdings in broad-market ETFs like SPY (+73%).

• It sees market as increasingly concentrated and potentially "bubbly."

• By moving money into S&P 500 index, they are diluting the risk of individual stock volatility while staying exposed to general US growth - a classic "risk parity" move.  

(3) Defensive Positioning via "Hard Assets"

By adding Newmont (NEM) and industrial leaders like Caterpillar (CAT), Bridgewater is preparing for a world of geopolitical tension and inflation.

This strategy moves the portfolio into "physical reality" assets, using gold to hedge against weak currencies and industrials to profit from the massive power and land requirements of the AI boom.

By diversifying into these areas, the firm creates a necessary safety net against a purely digital portfolio.

Was it a ‘Right’ move?

Below are Dalio’s top 3 holdings past 6 months performances - Q3 2025 & Q4 2025.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF: (see above)

• SPY’s Q3 2025 performance was +7.86% with 30 Sep 2025 closing price at $666.18 /unit.

• Its Q4 2025 performance was +2.02% with 31 Dec 2025 closing price at $681.92 /unit.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF: (see above)

• IVVY’s Q3 2025 performance was +7.84% with 30 Sep 2025 closing price at $669.30 /unit.

• Its Q4 2025 performance was +1.95% with 31 Dec 2025 closing price at $684.94 /unit.

• NVDA’s Q3 2025 performance was a whooping +21.71% with 30 Sep 2025 closing price at $186.58 /unit.

• Its Q4 2025 performance has been marginally disappointing, registering a decline of -0.40% with 31 Dec 2025 closing price at $186.50 /unit on late November 2025 news that $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ might purchase $Alphabet(GOOG)$’s TPU chips for its AI data centre .

Other thoughts.

Even though Dalio cut his GOOG holdings by a massive -40% in late 2025, the stock still holds the 6th position in his Top 10 ranking.

He appears to be simply taking profits after a massive run, rather than losing faith in GOOG.

This makes sense given that GOOG has surged by +62.22% over the past 12 months, providing a perfect opportunity to lock in gains while keeping a strong core position.

The stock that Dalio truly “lost faith” should be UBER. (see above)

Perhaps he views “autonomous” driving as still in its infancy state and will need more time to mature before mounting a realistic domination ? (see above)

In short, I think Bridgewater is bullish about the AI-revolution, but cautious on the price. They are still betting on the future of technology by trimming the "dead” weight and taking a profit-breather.

More importantly, its continual load up on SPY, IVV and NVDA seems to have paid off. Agree ?

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