GOLD: The Calm Before Storm
$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Technical Analysis: The gold market is currently in a typical "calm before the storm." The tug-of-war between bulls and bears around the $5200 level reflects the market's high degree of uncertainty regarding the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations. Technically, if the negotiations achieve a breakthrough, gold prices could quickly test the $5100 or even $5000 psychological level; conversely, if the negotiations break down and regional conflict escalates, gold prices will easily break through the $5200 resistance and quickly challenge the previous high of $5340.
It is worth noting that even if gold prices experience a short-term pullback due to easing geopolitical risks, its downside potential may be relatively limited. Expectations of a Fed rate cut, lower US Treasury yields, and a weakening dollar in the medium term will all provide solid support for gold. A short-term pullback does not change the medium-term bullish trend, and targets of $5340 and even $5400 remain achievable.
Until the outcome of the Vienna negotiations next week, a cautious wait-and-see approach is undoubtedly the prevailing market sentiment. However, for investors with a long-term perspective, every pullback triggered by easing geopolitical risks may present a good opportunity to buy gold. After all, with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle approaching, the reshaping of the global geopolitical landscape, and the economic uncertainties brought about by the artificial intelligence wave, gold's safe-haven appeal and value preservation function will become increasingly prominent. Asian and European markets are expected to consolidate within a narrow range! Maintain a buy-oriented trading strategy!
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