To The Moon

As humans, we have a tendency to imagine a world that doesn’t yet exist and simplify how easy it will be to get to this imaginary place.

In reality, change happens slowly on a day-to-day basis.

Yes, a lot has changed in the last few decades, but in many ways, nothing has changed at all.

In 1995, Bill Gates became the richest man in the world, a title he’s within striking distance of holding today.

In the 1940s, $Coca-Cola(KO)$ became a consumer staple drink, a place it still holds today.

$Nike(NKE)$ was the “IT brand” when I was a kid, and 40 years later, Jordan (a Nike creation and brand) is the “IT brand” for my son.

$General Motors(GM)$ and $Ford(F)$ have been around for over a century and make the best-selling vehicles in the U.S. today.

Gasoline is more expensive than when I was a kid, but the nozzle that goes into my car is almost identical to the one that went into my grandpa’s car when I was little.

I could go on and on. Homebuilding, restaurants, schools, transportation, air travel, and energy are largely unchanged for decades.

I write a lot about disruption on these pages, but the truth is, most of the world looks very similar year to year.

We make incremental improvements that compound over time, but revolutions are rare.

This week, an article by Citrini Research went viral and was arguably the driver of the market’s decline early in the week. It argued that AI disruption is coming for everything from law to $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ …and it’s coming in months!

Call me old school, but I think a better bet is that the future looks a lot like the present. As Bucco says, “Nothing Ever Happens.”

Imagining Disruption

It’s easy to imagine disruption.

But creating something disruptive is much harder.

For $Uber(UBER)$ to be what it is today, the company had to burn billions of dollars training users and drivers to use the platform.

$Apple(AAPL)$ had to build the most successful product ever, develop new chips, attract millions of developers to build for the platform, and build a retail giant.

Energy has been on the cusp of disruption from solar to modular nuclear to energy storage to hydrogen for decades…only to be nearly identical to the energy industry 50 years ago.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ distrupted the auto business until it didn’t and now it’s moved on to robots…

And then there’s AI, which is so new and interesting that imaginations run wild with possibilities.

We like to talk about disruption. We like to imagine disruption. But it’s rarer than you might think.

Finding Real Disruption

When I look for disruption, I try to find businesses that have as many of these features as possible.

• Users Willing (Eager) To Try An Alternative

• An Alternative With Better Economics

• Returns to Scale/Networks/Multi-Sided Markets

• A New Form Factor

• New Business Models

Without one of these, it’s hard to upend the status quo.

This is why OpenAI bought Love From, Johnny Ive’s startup. OpenAI knows if it’s going to be a tech giant, it likely needs a new form factor.

It’s also what will make the future very similar to today.

DoorDash/Uber/ $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ have benefited from network effects and multi-sided markets, which will make them difficult to disrupt.

Software companies like Workday have businesses and data built on top of their service. A vide-coded mistake could be a disaster.

One of the reasons I think $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ and $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ have disruptive potential is that they serve markets where users are eager to find an alternative, they bring better economics, and there’s a new business model.

That doesn’t mean that any one company will be disruptive or will be a 10x stock, but stacking these factors in our favor will pay off long-term for a handful of outliers.

More Than “Stories”

The hard part is differentiating between disruption, a risk that didn’t work out, and a company that was never more than a “story.”

Invest long enough, and you’ll make the mistake of buying into a story.

I’ve done it on Asymmetric Investing, and I’m sure I’ll do it again.

But there are some stories I’m not buying into.

I was reminded of another this week when $Eos Energy Enterprises Inc.(EOSE)$ plunged 40% after reporting disappointing results. Is energy storage real? Yes! But is this a good company to own? I’ll leave you with this chart:

Remember when $Plug Power(PLUG)$ was one of the hottest hydrogen stocks in 2020? That didn’t work out because the story of hydrogen’s future is always better than the reality.

Is $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ more than a story?

What’s the difference between a story and reality?

It can be hard to tell.

But if your default assumption is that a story is wrong, that assumption has to be proven false. This is how scientific experiments work. You don’t try to prove something is true; you try to prove the opposite is false.

Sometimes this can be good framing.

Don’t try to prove that Hims & Hers is disruptive. Try to prove that Eli Lilly will take Retatrutide direct to consumer with an easy-to-use app. Could they do it?

Don’t try to prove that $Zillow(Z)$ is disrupting home buying and rentals. Try to argue that an apartment owner will do better by listing their property online or going direct to customers.

Invert.

What If Nothing Ever Happens?

Here’s the thought exercise for today:

What if nothing ever happens?

What if the future looks a lot like the past?

What if you still use Uber to call for a ride, but the vehicle is autonomous rather than having a human driver?

What if Workday is still how HR hires and manages employee benefits a decade from now?

What if Salesforce is the dominant CRM for big companies a decade from now?

What if we don’t all have a humanoid robot at home?

What if Google is the winner in AI, not OpenAI or Anthropic?

I could go on and on.

The market is worried about disruption today. But my money is on fewer companies than you might think being disrupted.

It’s hard to build a new company. Harder than “vibe coding” may indicate.

And consumer momentum is a powerful force in any industry.

Now, we just need to assess what the appropriate price is to pay for the companies that won’t be disrupted, but also may not take over the world.

I think that’s what the market is grappling with right now. And that’s easier said than done.

I’ll be back to explain why multiple compression has been the story of 2026 on Sunday.

For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now

Find out more here.

Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.

Click to access the activity

Other helpful links:

• 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉

• How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.