To The Moon

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Costco(COST)$  $MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ I have seen enough cycles to recognise when markets transition from comfort to recalibration. This week is not about incremental data noise. It is about regime risk.

The intensification of US–Israeli military operations against Iran, combined with persistent inflation pressures, is creating a structurally fragile backdrop for global assets. Coordinated airstrikes targeting senior Iranian leadership have triggered retaliatory measures and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows 🛢️

Brent crude has already risen approximately 10% in recent over-the-counter trading to around US$80 per barrel. Analysts are openly discussing a move towards US$100 if tensions persist, despite OPEC+ maintaining plans to increase output by 206,000 barrels per day. The market is embedding a geopolitical risk premium. Once embedded, those premia are rarely removed gently.

Simultaneously, January US Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month on month, led by services. Inflation remains sticky while retail sales soften. That combination is not benign. It pressures margins, compresses discretionary spending power, and complicates Federal Reserve reaction functions. 📊

President Trump’s comments regarding potential dialogue with Iran’s interim administration introduce a de-escalation variable. However, diplomacy must translate into observable supply normalisation before energy markets unwind risk premia. Until then, logistics, natural gas, shipping, fertiliser and broader equities remain exposed.

US equities closed lower into the weekend:

Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.05% to 48,978

S&P 500 -0.43% to 6,879

Nasdaq Composite -0.92% to 22,668

This is not panic. It is volatility repricing. 📉

Close monitoring of oil and mineral commodities is essential. Prolonged Strait disruption increases global input costs. Resolution could trigger rapid mean reversion. In both cases, positioning discipline is paramount.

This framework integrates macro releases, earnings catalysts and sector dynamics with focus on AVGO, MDB, COST, CRDO, CIEN, QUBT, CRWD, TGT, WIX, SE, MRVL, OKTA, JD, ANF and BULL.

Monday, 2 March 📅

Manufacturing Tone and Early Earnings Momentum

Macro 📊

ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am ET. Consensus 50.5. A move below 50 signals contraction into rising energy costs, a difficult quadrant for cyclicals and transports.

Earnings 💼

Pre-market: Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Xeris Biopharma (XERS)

After close: MongoDB (MDB), Credo Technology (CRDO), BigBear.ai (BBAI), Plug Power (PLUG), Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT)

Options are pricing double-digit moves in AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Asana (ASAN), signalling event-driven volatility. ⚠️

Volatility Scan 🔎

Elevated options activity: ASTS, Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE)

Overbought 14-day RSI: ATI Inc. (ATI), Keysight (KEYS), Nordic American Tankers (NAT)

Oversold: Gossamer Bio (GOSS), FuboTV (FUBO), Oddity Tech (ODD)

High short interest in software: UiPath (PATH), Duolingo (DUOL), CoreWeave (CRWV), RingCentral (RNG)

Events 🌐

DOJ antitrust proceedings vs Live Nation-Ticketmaster (LYV)

Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference featuring Walmart, Cisco, Disney

Mobile World Congress in Barcelona spotlighting Qualcomm and AT&T

DraftKings Investor Day testing growth durability

Tuesday, 3 March 📅

Consumer Stress Test and Cybersecurity Focus

Earnings 💼

Pre-market: Target (TGT), a direct read on freight and pricing power

After close: CrowdStrike (CRWD), Best Buy (BBY), GitLab (GTLB), Sea Limited (SE)

Geopolitical instability can accelerate cybersecurity budgets. CRWD and OKTA sit in structurally advantaged segments. 🔐

M&A 🤝

Shareholder votes on Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD)–BioMarin (BMRN) and Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX) acquisition by Eli Lilly (LLY) reflect biotech risk appetite.

Fed Speakers 🏦

John Williams and Neel Kashkari. Any shift in tone around inflation persistence or energy pass-through will matter.

Wednesday, 4 March 📅

Services Resilience and Semiconductor Conviction

Macro 📊

ISM Services PMI consensus 53.0

Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00pm ET, critical for regional labour and pricing commentary.

Earnings 💼

Pre-market: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Dycom (DY), Wix.com (WIX)

After close: Broadcom (AVGO), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Okta (OKTA)

AVGO guidance is central to AI infrastructure momentum. MRVL and CRDO trade in sympathy across networking and data centre build-out. 

AVGO Earnings This Week. Decision Zone 🧠📊⚖️

$AVGO is sitting at a technically critical level into earnings.

The prior gap has now been fully filled. That matters. The market has repaired unfinished business, which means this next move will be information-driven, not technical housekeeping.

The pivot is $305.

If $305 holds on a closing basis post-earnings, it transitions from prior resistance into developing support. That opens the path back toward $350, where supply previously capped upside momentum. 📈

If $305 breaks with conviction and volume expands, the air pocket below becomes visible. The next structural demand zone sits closer to $280. That is not emotional. It is simply where buyers last defended size. 📉

So the framework is clean:

$350 above

$305 pivot

$280 below

The risk-reward into the print is balanced, not skewed.

The gap fill reduces technical pressure.

Implied volatility is elevated into earnings.

AI-driven semiconductor momentum remains intact structurally.

However, price is compressing near $305. That tells me the market is waiting for guidance confirmation rather than aggressively positioning ahead of it.

When a stock sits between $350 resistance and $280 support, and earnings are the catalyst, probability is evenly distributed.

In this environment, stepping aside is not indecision. It is discipline.

Sometimes the highest quality trade is the one you do not take.

Events 📱

Apple global product announcements

Investor Days for Lennox (LII) and Pentair (PNR)

Netflix CFO session at Morgan Stanley conference

Thursday, 5 March 📅

Labour Signals and Global Policy Direction

Macro 📊

Weekly Jobless Claims consensus 220,000. A sustained uptick would alter rate expectations.

Earnings 💼

Pre-market: Ciena (CIEN)

After close: Costco Wholesale (COST), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Kroger (KR), JD.com (JD)

COST margin commentary under rising input costs will be dissected carefully. JD reflects direct China exposure. 🇨🇳

Events 🌏

China’s National People’s Congress may signal fiscal, GDP and technology priorities.

Caterpillar executives at CONEXPO will frame infrastructure demand.

Friday, 6 March 📅

Payrolls, Retail and Cross-Asset Repricing

Macro 📊

Nonfarm Payrolls forecast +62,000, unemployment 4.4%

Retail Sales expected -0.2%

A weak payroll print combined with firm oil revives stagflation debate. A strong labour report with rising energy tightens the Fed’s corridor.

Additional Catalysts 🛢️

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

UN FAO Food Price Index

Booking Holdings 25-for-1 stock split record date

FDA decision on Bristol Myers Squibb

Dividend ex-dates: Allstate (ALL), Lam Research (LRCX), Cigna (CI), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Portfolio Considerations 🎯

Energy remains a defensive anchor while Strait uncertainty persists. The United States’ net exporter status provides partial insulation domestically, but global supply chains remain vulnerable.

Semiconductors including AVGO, MRVL, CRDO and CIEN retain structural AI demand support. Cybersecurity leaders CRWD and OKTA benefit from persistent threat vectors.

Retail exposure across TGT, COST, ANF and JD faces cost pressure asymmetry. Digital platforms WIX and SE offer growth convexity but require disciplined sizing. Emerging exposure such as QUBT carries high optionality and elevated volatility. Leveraged vehicles like BULL demand tactical hedging. ⚖️

This is a scenario-driven week.

Escalation sustains commodity premia and margin compression.

De-escalation unlocks relief rallies and short covering.

In this regime, preservation of capital and precision of exposure matter more than narrative comfort.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀