To The Moon

The much-watched Iran situation officially entered a new phase last weekend. A U.S.–Iran “hidden move” style decapitation operation quickly carried out targeted killings of Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials. Markets reacted in the usual way: gold and crude oil jumped, while stock index futures opened lower. $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$

After this knee-jerk reaction, the real question is bigger. Is the Middle East—always unstable—just going through another short shock? Or are we about to see a long, wide conflict? Another key point: what kind of “results” will Trump use to declare victory?

From a pure news-and-fundamentals angle, the strike has not delivered ideal results so far. Iran’s retaliation on Monday did not achieve much in practical terms. But the fact that it touched civilian facilities across multiple countries/regions has already affected market sentiment. In other words, the “take out the leader first” approach has not yet produced what it was meant to. If we don’t see news of a quick Iranian “surrender” this week, then the next thing to watch is when—and how—Trump chooses to exit. $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$

That said, this doesn’t mean the U.S. and Israel got nothing. A more likely outcome under strategic bargaining is this: Iran becomes more divided and weakened internally, while still remaining a sovereign state on paper. For Washington and Tel Aviv, a large Islamic country stuck in infighting and disorder can be more useful than trying to directly control Iran.

So our base case is that the situation will not spread much further to other regions. It is even less likely to trigger some so-called “Season 3” (a wider global war). The higher-probability path is a few rounds of symbolic retaliation by Iran, followed by Trump making a high-profile announcement that the goals have been achieved—then wrapping it up. Both sides get a result they can sell at home, and both sides save face. $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$

If this is the path, then the assets that benefited early this week may start to give back part of the gains once the initial “risk premium” is priced in. But that does not mean oil and gold must reverse and fall. More likely, they move into a new trading range and trade choppily.

Take crude oil as an example. On timing, it is entering a ninth cycle this week. On price, it has moved into the 74–80 zone. A war-driven rebound in oil is understandable. But a runaway spike is not what the Trump administration wants. If inflation flares up again, domestic pressure in the U.S. becomes a bigger headache for Trump. And if the conflict expands, risk assets—including U.S. equities—would face more pressure too. That also goes against the goal of keeping things stable ahead of the midterm elections.

Gold is not exactly the same as crude oil. $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$ Oil had been under pressure for a while, while gold has been in a bull market. Even so, if you look at gold’s past correction patterns, a pullback lasting only one month doesn’t really fit. So unless we get an unexpected black swan event or a larger-scale escalation, it will be difficult for gold to make new highs in the near term. $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$

For this week’s strategy, keep the pending EUR order in place: place a limit buy at 1.1710, set the stop-loss below 1.1600, and set targets at 1.2040 and 1.2810 (take profit on half at each level). Keep the order as GTC (good‑til‑cancelled).​

For gold, half of last week’s short position was filled, and another half was filled again on Monday. The average entry is 5300. Set the stop-loss at 5630 (above the recent high), with targets at 4870 and 4490. $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2604(MGCmain)$

As for other opportunities: for crude oil, watch for “sell into strength” chances within the 74–80 range. For crypto, prices tried to break down twice last week but failed both times (one of the dips was war-driven selling), which may hint at a rebound/repair move. However, the longer-term trend in both Bitcoin $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ and Ethereum $Ethereum(ETH.USD.CC)$ $Ethereum(ETH.USD.HKCC)$ has already deteriorated; if new lows print again, there is also a lack of strong technical support below.