To The Moon

I was quietly confident that NVDA will hand in a stellar earnings report when I posted about it on Wed, 25 Feb 2026 morning (Singapore time). Click here ! to read, help to Repost ok. Thanks.

Stellar, it was !

Q4 2025 Earnings Details.

NVDA reported better-than-expected fiscal 4th quarter results on Wednesday, driven by +75% revenue growth in its core data centre business.

Actual Earnings vs Analysts' estimates (polled by LSEG):

• Earnings per share (adjusted) : $1.62 vs $1.53 estimated.

• Revenue: $68.13 billion vs $66.21 billion estimated vs Q4 2024's $30.3 billion; that's a +73% YoY gain.

• Net income: almost doubled to $43 billion vs Q4 2024's $22.1 billion; that's a +94.57% YoY gain.

• Data centre quarterly revenue of $62.3 billion was ahead of forecast of $60.69 billion.

Products Revenue Breakdown.

As per NVDA's CFO Colette Kress remarks - Hyperscalers remain the company's largest customer category, accounting for just over 50% of data centre revenue.

Within the Data Centre business:

• $10.98 billion came from sales of networking parts that are used to connect hundreds of GPUs. Sales were up +263% YoY, indicating strong adoption of NVDA's NVlink networking technology and Spectrum-X ethernet switches.

• $3.7 billion came from gaming division; that used to be NVDA's biggest revenue source. Its a +47% YoY growth. Compared to Q3 2025's gaming revenue, it has fallen by -13% QoQ though.

• With memory crunch being a potential area of concern, due to global shortage - analysts are predicting that NVDA may skip launching a new gaming GPU in 2026.

2026 Outlook.

More importantly, its guidance for current quarter and FY 2026 were largely inline or exceed analysts’ expectations.

For Q1 2026

• Revenue is expected to be $78 billion ±2% vs analysts' expectations of $72.6 billion.

For FY 2026,

• Revenue is expected to be $215.9 billion, up +65% from fiscal 2025.

• GAAP EPS: is forecasted to be $4.90.

Stock Price Movement.

Despite reporting a historic “beat-and-raise" performance, NVDA’s stock price experienced a sharp "sell-the-news" reaction, post fiscal Q4 2026 earnings release. (see below)

On Wed, 25 Feb 2026:

• Stock opened at $194.45 and rose +1.41% for the day, closing at $195.56, /share.

• Post earnings announcement, NVDA saw a modest gain, suggesting that much of the optimism had already been factored into the price during the lead-up to earnings announcement.

On Thu 26 Feb 2026:

• Stock opened lower at $194.27 and faced intense selling pressure throughout the day.

• By the closing bell, NVDA had fallen by -5.46% to settle at $184.89.

• It marked a pivot in investor sentiment, as focus moved from the massive revenue beat back to recurring concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.

On Fri, 27 Feb 2026:

• Downwards trend continued, with NVDA opened lower at $181.25.

• It continued to slide as (a) persistent "AI bubble" fears and (b) broader macroeconomic concerns weighed on the semiconductor sector.

• It closed the week at $177.19, representing a further -4.16% decline for the day.

Over the 2-day post-earnings window, NVDA’s valuation retracted by -8.8%, highlighting a market that is demanding more than just short-term earnings growth to justify current valuations.

Damage Control.

CEO Jensen Huang continues his fervent damage control.

In a statement accompanying Q4 2025 earnings report, he said:

• Our customers (MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOG, ORCL) are racing to invest in AI compute.

• The factories powering the AI industrial revolution and their future growth.

The main concern is investors (institutions and retail) doubt cloud providers can sustain spending $700 billion on AI.

The scale of spending has sparked concerns that growth could slow if budgets plateau in 2026 or 2027. Skepticism is also growing because some of these companies are starting to run low on extra cash.

To that end, CEO Jensen Huang again tried to push back:

• Down playing concerns about slowing growth, arguing that a fundamental change in technology is driving demand.

• Explaining that in the current market, computing power is the primary source of income.

• Without this power, companies cannot produce the "tokens" or data needed to make money.

Additionally, Huang highlighted:

• NVDA’s sales orders and product plans already stretch into 2027.

• Proving that demand remains strong.

• Modern computing has shifted from running simple software to powering advanced AI systems.

• That companies (now) regard AI spending as a necessary way to earn money rather than just an extra expense.

• The industry has reached a turning point as businesses adopt autonomous AI agents.

• These AI systems are creating real profit for both cloud providers and their customers, that justifies the continued high spending on NVDA's technology.

What’s Next ?

Honestly, I don’t have much lead about US market directions for the coming week.

Last week’s US economic reports (see below) did not seemed to affect market sentiments.

• Tue, 24 Feb 2026 - US consumer confidence report.

• Thu, 26 Feb 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly and continuing.

• Fri, 27 Feb 2026 - Producer price index (PPI) - headline & core.

Consumer Confidence (February 2026).

US consumer confidence rebounded more than expected in February 2026. (see below)

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased by +2.2 points to 91.2. This was higher than market consensus of 87.4 and also higher than January 2026 upwards revised 89.0 from original reading of 84.5, that was the lowest since May 2014.

Improvement in confidence reported was mostly among consumers aged 54 years or less, and respondents identifying as Republican & Independent.

While, the mood remained downbeat among those 55 and older, as well as among Democrats.

According to Conference Board, Chief economist, Dana Peterson:

• Confidence ticked up as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased marginally, although it remained well below the 4-year peak achieved in November 2024 of 112.8.

• The biggest increase in confidence was among households with annual incomes of $100,000-$124,999 - the upper middle class; while lower middle and lower class, were less upbeat, understandably.

Reading in between the lines, the February confidence report does suggests a notable divergence in sentiment, confirming wealthier US consumers are indeed the primary drivers of the recent index improvement.

While the headline index rose to 91.2, the "Expectations Index" (forward-looking part of report) remains stuck below 80. (see above)

Historically, staying below 80 signals a high risk of recession.

Jobless Claims.

(1) Weekly claims.

For week ended 21 Feb 2026, US weekly jobless claims rose by +4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week. (see below)

According to High Frequency Economics, Chief economist, Carl Weinberg:

• The data show no sign of the layoffs ‘expected’ in a weakening labour market, during the early days of a hypothetical recession.

• As a result, this will jolly up traders who believe the Fed will not cut rates anytime soon, given a steady labour market and inflation above target.

(2) Continuing claims.

Data for US continuing claims report, turned out to be more upbeat.

For week ended ended 14 Feb 2026, continuing claims dropped by -31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.833 million, lower than analysts’ consensus of 1.86 million and lower than previous week’s reading of downwards revised 1.864 million.

Continued claims rose modestly between the January and February survey weeks, confirming that "low hiring rate is still the most concerning aspect of US labour market”.

However looking at its trend suggests that US employers are not pulling back further, as remarked by Oxford Economics, Lead US economist, Nancy Vanden Houten.

US Producer Price Index (January 2026).

US producer price index (PPI) report released by US Labour department came in stronger than expected for January 2026, reinforcing economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve would not resume interest rates cut before June 16-17 FOMC meeting. (see below)

Headline PPI (MoM) for final demand rose +0.5%, after advancing by a downwardly revised +0.4% in December 2026 vs economists’ polled +0.3%. (see below)

In the 12 months through January, the PPI increased +2.9%, marginally lower than December 2025’s +3.0%.

Moderation in the year-on-year producer inflation rate reflected the dropping out of last year's high readings from the calculation.

Core PPI rose +0.8% on a MoM basis, after gaining +0.6% in December 2025.

Annual core PPI increased to 3.6% over a delayed release due to the brief shutdown of the federal government that ended early this month.

In short, headline PPI (MoM) rose, partly due to trade margins reflecting tariff pass-throughs and core PPI excluding food, energy , and trade services (MoM) accelerated to its 9th consecutive gain, driven by broad-based input costs, underscoring sticky inflation risks for Fed policymakers.

Markets are now pricing in a "higher-for-longer" scenario, as the PPI often serves as a precursor to the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

US Market this week.

For the first trading week of March 2026, sentiments should rest on a delicate balance between a cooling tech sector and a heating geopolitical landscape.

I believe the NVDA hangover will persists due to current sentiments and focus should shifts to:

• US jobs report, hinting on health of US labour market.

• Tension in the Middle East.

US economic reports out this week:

• 02 Mar 2026 – ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb)

• 04 Mar 2026 – ISM Services Index (Feb)

• 04 Mar 2026 - US ADP jobs report (Feb).

• 05 Mar 2026 – Jobless claims - weekly & continuing.

• 06 Mar 2026 - US Non-farm payroll (Feb)

In a ‘normal’ situation, above economic reports especially Friday's non-farm payroll, would influence US market volatility.

However for this week, I strongly believe current geopolitical situation in Iran will be the main factor.

Following direct military strikes by US and Israel against Iran on 28 Feb 2026, US market is facing a "watershed” moment.

If there is any parallel or backwards looking to draw similar conclusions from, it would be the “Israel / Gaza” conflict that erupted on Fri, 07 Oct 2025. (see below)

S&P 500 - Oct 2023 extract

When the conflict first erupted, the immediate reaction on Mon, 9 Oct 2023, was a "flight to safety".

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ futures initially fell -0.9%, and oil prices surged over +4%. Interestingly, the market bottomed almost immediately.

The S&P 500 closed higher (+0.6%) that same day as investors realized the conflict remained "contained."

The real rally began in late October 2023, cross-referencing with a cooling of US Treasury yields rather than ground-level peace.

Same - this time round ?

Unlike 2023, the current attack on Iran, a major oil producer will to a certain extent pose a structural threat to global energy supplies that the 2023 Gaza conflict did not.

As the attack is still ongoing and going to be played out through this week, it is hard to imagine how swiftly ‘peace’ of any sort can be restored as the conflict has enlarge to include neighbouring countries’ airports.

Also as confirmed by Trump "combat operations" against Iran will continue "until all of US objectives are achieved", a poker card gamble he is playing at the expense of his mid-term election in November 2026.

On Mon, 02 Mar 2026 -midday, Asia market has taken a hit : (see below)

Asia market on 02 Mar 2026 noon

While US market futures index are as follows:

• All 3 major indexes are slated to open at least -0.75% lower.

• Oil index is going to open +5% higher and US 10-years bond remains elevated at +3.981%.

Is now the time to buy the dip or hold on for more ‘bad’ news to roll out, I can no longer tell. This attack is wrong at so many levels.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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