To The Moon

After announcing the new quarterly financial report, $Nvidia (NVDA) $The stock price trend shows the characteristics of "bullish cashing". Although the company's revenue and profits continue to maintain high growth rates, and data centers and AI-related businesses are still the core growth engines, the market's review of the future capital expenditure pace, gross profit margin sustainability, and AI investment return cycle is obviously becoming rational. Within a few trading days after the announcement of the financial report, the stock price fell from its high level, and the trading volume increased significantly, indicating that some funds chose to take profits in stages, and short-term volatility intensified.

At the same time, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, the risk of geopolitical conflicts surrounding Iran has increased, crude oil prices have risen, and global market risk appetite has dropped significantly. Safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. bonds received capital inflows, while the high-valued technology sector was under pressure. Against the background of rising risk premiums, the sensitivity of growth stock valuations to macro uncertainties has increased, and Nvidia has also been dragged down by overall market sentiment.

From the perspective of technical structure,The $170 line has become an important support area at present。 This position is not only the lower edge of the previous shock platform, but also near the low point of the first correction after the financial report. After multiple steps back, there are buying orders, and the transaction structure shows that there is a certain defensive force. If the stock price can continue to hold above 170, it may maintain a range-bound pattern in the short term; If it effectively falls below 170, it may open up room for further decline to the 165 area, and the market will reassess the periodic valuation anchor point.

Overall, Nvidia's current trend is characterized by solid fundamentals but sensitive valuations. On the premise that the long-term logic of AI has not been destroyed, short-term fluctuations come more from changes in risk appetite and macro sentiment, and the support performance around $170 will become an important observation level for judging the balance of long and short forces.

NVIDIA Bull Put Spread Strategy

1. Strategy structure

Investors in$Nvidia (NVDA) $Build a Bull Put Spread strategy on options.

This strategy is a long/volatile strategy that collects premium, limited returns, and limited risks. It is suitable for judging that NVIDIA can hold the lower support area, maintain volatility or rise moderately before expiration.

1 ️ ⃣ Sell higher strike price Put (main source of income)

• Sell 1 Put with strike price K ₂ = $170

• Premium received = $2.28/share

This Put is closer to the current price and is a major source of revenue for Strategic premium. As long as the expiration price is ≥ $170, the option expires and the investor retains all premium rights.

2 ️ ⃣ Buy lower strike price Put (control downside risk)

• Buy 1 Put with strike price K ₁ = $165

• Premium paid = $1.39/share

This Put is used to limit the risk of NVIDIA's sharp decline and avoid possible larger losses caused by naked selling Put.

3 ️ ⃣ Put-side net income (per share)

Net premium revenue was:

2.28 − 1.39 = $0.89/share

This is the maximum available benefit of this strategy.

2. Maximum profit

When NVIDIA expiration price ≥ $170:

• Both Put are out-of-the-money

• All options lapsed

Investors retain all net premium:

• Maximum profit (per share) = $0.89

• Per contract (100 shares) = $89

Conditions of occurrence: Expiration price ≥ $170

3. Maximum loss

When NVIDIA expiration price ≤ $165:

• Both Put are in-the-money

• Strike spreads are fully locked

Calculation:

Strike spread = 170 − 165 = $5

Maximum loss (per share) = Strike spread − Net premium

= 5 − 0. 89 = $4.11/share

• Maximum loss per contract = $411

Conditions of occurrence: Expiration price ≤ $165

4. Break-even point

Formula:

Sell Put Strike Price − Net premium

= 170 − 0.89 = $169.11

Maturity judgment:

• Price ≥ 169. 11 → Profit

• Price = 169.11 → No profit, no loss

• Price ≤ 169. 11 → Loss

5. Strategic characteristics and applicable situations

Strategy Characteristics

• Clear bullish/shock strategy

• Charge premium structure, time value benefits investors

• Maximum gain and maximum loss are determined when opening a position

• Compared with naked selling Put, the downside risk is capped

Applicable situations

When investors judge:

• NVIDIA has clear support in the 165-170 range

• The probability of breaking below 165 in the short term is low

• Hope to obtain relatively stable returns by selling time value

• Or establish a closing premium strategy when the implied volatility is high

The essence of this structure is:

"Use the risk of $4.11 to gain a return of $0.89",

The winning rate of the strategy depends on the judgment that "the price holds above 170 or at least does not effectively fall below 169.11"; If the stock price quickly breaks through the support, the loss will accelerate (but the maximum loss has been capped).