To The Moon

As the Middle East disruption runs into its 5th day of execution on Wed, 04 Mar 2026, US market momentarily recovered.

By the time market called it a day: (see above)

• DJIA: rose by +0.49% (+238.14 to 48,739.41).

• S&P 500: rose by +0.78% (+52.87 to 6,869.50).

• Nasdaq: rose by +1.29% (+290.79 to 22,807.48).

Personally, I remain vigilant and to a certain extent pessimistic about the US market, simply because there is no end insight for this sudden mess, that has ‘effectively’ upended global trade - dragging the world’s economies down with that of the land of the free.

In focus - Oil Price.

During such uncertain times, oil prices have continued to surge without restraint.

Oil prices have spiked sharply since the start of the assault, with WTI and Brent gaining 8-9% immediately amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. (see below)

Since 02 Mar 2026, trading open,

• WTI hit $72.79 (+8.6% from around $67 close),

• Brent $79.41 (+9% from $72.87).

This, as Iran prohibited strait passage and two vessels were struck.

Prices briefly topped $82 Brent before paring to around $79 amid physical tightness.

Trajectory to Date

By March 3-5, WTI stabilized near $76-77 (±4% total), Brent ~$83 (±14%), with $Citigroup(C)$ forecasting $80-90 amid escalation risks.

Price movement summary:

Volatility persists from slowed shipping and insurance halts, though no full blockade yet.

If we assume that peace and stability will not return in the immediate term with such disruption, is it timely to consider on alternative energy as investment ?

Green Facts.

This thought comes about as Green energy generation in the US hit record highs in 2025, despite repeated efforts by the Trump administration to sideline it.

According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA), more than 25% of US electricity came from renewable sources in 2025, up from 10% the prior year.

Solar and Wind, both of which lost their federal tax credits last year and have been frequent targets of Trump’s broadsides, remained the fastest-growing electricity source in the country. (see below)

Although a surge in energy demand has driven up power generated from fossil fuels, renewables are accelerating beyond those gains, mostly for economic reasons.

The cost of photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and grid-scale batteries has fallen low enough that building new renewable capacity remains cheaper than most alternatives, with or without government subsidies.

Investors have evidently caught on, as nearly 80% of the power plant capacity planned over the next decade is tied to renewable sources.

The XLE Observation.

As of early March 2026, the $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ has emerged as the definitive "blockbuster" performer of 2026 (so far). (see below)

As of 05 Mar 2026

XLE has delivered a staggering year-to-date return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which has remained largely flat (+0.16%) over the same period.

• The XLE is up +23.09% YTD as of 05 Mar 2026.

• It currently holds the title of the best-performing sector in the S&P 500 by a wide margin.

• The fund saw a parabolic move post 28 Feb 2026 assault on Iran, jumping from the mid-$50s to touch recent highs near $58.

The Question.

With that in mind, is It time to re-look at $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ after a 3 year -81% share price fall ?

Below are latest facts & figures on ENPH:

• Recently, ENPH closed at $43.20, with returns of +16.8% over the last 30 days and +28.0% YTD, but a -26.27% decline over 1 year and an -80.7% decline over 3 years.

• Recent sentiment around solar and clean energy has been heavily influenced by changing expectations for demand and policy support.

• This helps explain the mix of short term gains and longer term declines in Enphase Energy's share price.

• Sector wide news around financing conditions, project delays and investor appetite for growth names has also shaped how the market is pricing risk in this area.

• Right now Enphase Energy scores 3 out of 6 (neutral score) on fintech platform Simply Wall St.

Below is a deep dive on 3 key factors driving ENPH’s valuation derivation. (see below)

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), modelling takes estimated future cash flows and then discounts them back to what they might be worth today. It’s a way of translating long term cash generation into a present value per share.

For ENPH, a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity modelling was applied:

• Latest 12 month free cash flow is about $83.1 million.

• Analyst and extrapolated projections have free cash flow reaching about $526.1 million in 2035.

• With interim estimates such as $360.3 million in 2026 and $471.8 million in 2030, all in US$ and already adjusted for time value in the model.

When all those projected cash flows are discounted back, the estimated intrinsic value comes out at about $36.60 per share.

Against the recent share price of $43.20, this points to the stock trading at roughly an +18.0% premium to the DCF estimate, implying market is pricing in stronger cash flows or a lower risk profile than this model assumes.

In other words, ENPH may be overvalued by +18.0%. (see below)

Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful quick check because it links what an investor pay today directly to the earnings the business is already generating.

General rule of thumb is investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E based on what they expect for future growth and how risky they think those earnings are.

ENPH currently trades on a P/E of 32.9x.

This is below the Semiconductor industry average of about 43.8x and also below the peer average of 65.0x.

Fintech platform, Simply Wall St adds another layer with its proprietary "Fair Ratio" of 43.9x, that represents the P/E it would expect for ENPH given factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and risk characteristics.

The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for the company’s own fundamentals rather than assuming it should trade like the average stock in the group.

Compared with the Fair Ratio of 43.9x vs current P/E of 32.9x suggests ENPH is trading at a discount on this metric.

ENPH’s Narratives.

Narratives help investors calculate a "Fair Value" for ENPH by inputting specific assumptions for revenue and profit.

This method compares personal estimates against ENPH’s stock price of $43.20, offering more flexibility than a standard valuation.

The following two cases illustrate the current range of outcomes:

🐂 Bull Case (Optimistic)

• Fair Value: $76.86 per share.

• Upside: Approximately 44% undervalued.

• Revenue Growth: 24% increase.

• Core Beliefs: ENPH maintains its lead in microinverters despite competition. High electricity prices and government tax credits sustain long-term solar demand. The company achieves multi-billion dollar revenue with 20% profit margins.

🐻 Bear Case (Pessimistic)

• Fair Value: $26.00 per share.

• Downside: Approximately 40% overvalued.

• Revenue Growth: 11.45% annual decline.

• Core Beliefs: Changing policies and weaker incentives hurt both US and European markets. Intense global price competition and high costs squeeze profit margins. Growth remains weak, making a recovery difficult to justify.

By comparing these defined stories, an investor determines which path aligns with their own risk tolerance and expectations.

Technical Analysis.

Personally I also take a look at a stock’s technical indicators to determine where its heading in the near to mid term.

ENPH’s technical chart as of 04 Mar 2026 shows a stock attempting to recover from a long-term decline, though it currently faces renewed downward pressure. (see below)

Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

The moving averages show a mixed trend with a "sandwich" effect on the price.

Its stock price is currently lower than its 20-day SMA ($46.32), after touching a recent high - hints at short-term weakness or profit-taking OR that ENPH is losing immediate momentum and may drop further toward the $40 level before finding support.

At the same time, with stock price higher than its 50-day SMA ($39.82) and 200-day SMA ($37.30) - it suggests ENPH has recently broken out of a long downtrend and may be trying to form a base.

With stock price above its 50-day SMA, this indicates a recent upward trend, with its 200-day SMA acting as a "floor" or support level.

MACD.

• The MACD line (1.36) is now below the signal line (2.16) with a negative divergence (-0.80).

The MACD measures momentum and is currently giving a bearish signal:

• The MACD line (1.36) has crossed below the Signal line (2.16); with both above the Zero line.

• The "Divergence" is negative (-0.80).

• All these point to a bearish momentum (in the short term), with buying pressure fading (denoted in the red trading volume histogram), and sellers are regaining control.

RSI.

• RSI stands at around 48.93, that is in the neutral zone of neither overbought nor oversold.

• This also hint that price direction could go either way.

• With a weakening MACD, a mild pullback seems more likely before any renewed uptrend.

With all information laid bare - will you jump and seize the moment OR wait for clearer signs as to where ENPH is really heading mid to long term ? It’s the latter for me. Et vous?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• Do you think attack on Iran will last until end June 2026 before signs of sustainable recovery?

• Do you think ENPH is worth a 2nd look before investors get wind of a return to Green energy in the US ?

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