Crude’s surge to ~$81 WTI is largely a geopolitical risk premium, not yet a structural supply shock. The key variable is still the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of global oil flows move through that chokepoint, so even the perception of disruption can add $10–$20 to prices quickly.
Bull case for $100+:
Any partial disruption to Hormuz tanker traffic.
Insurance premiums spike and shipping slows.
OPEC spare capacity cannot respond fast enough.
Speculative flows pile into energy as a hedge.
In that scenario, $95–$105 Brent is very plausible short term.
Bear case toward $73:
No physical disruption actually occurs.
The U.S. releases barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
War risk premium fades like previous Middle East spikes.
Macro demand concerns re-emerge.
Historically, geopolitical spikes often mean-revert once supply keeps flowing.
My view:
Unless Hormuz is physically disrupted, this looks more like a risk premium spike than a supply crisis. That means oil may trade $75–$90 rather than sustaining $100.
The real signal to watch is tanker flow through Hormuz, not headlines. If shipping slows, $100 oil becomes very realistic. If not, the market may indeed “gap fill” back toward the mid-$70s.
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