US Market 2026 winners - War & Wattage !
Will US market be torpedo by a double whammy from Mon, 9 Mar 2026, based off what US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said on Wed, 4 Mar 2026 ? (see below)
Since the revised tariff did not material on Fri, 6 Mar 2026 - this imminent 15% tax across the board ‘globally’ is going to haunt US market in the new trading week, I believe.
The new tariff under Section 122 of US Trade Act of 1974, gives Trump ‘free rein’ to impose a maximum 15% (that he will be doing) for a maximum 150 days.
Section 122 is a stop gap as the current government examine closely 2 other trade rules that have withstood court challenges :
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US Trade Act of 1974 - Section 301 that allows US Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate and respond to unfair foreign trade practices, eg. IP theft or forced tech transfers etc.. This law is often selectively applied on China, so far.
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Trade Expansion Act of 1962 - Section 232, that focuses on national security threats from imports. This policy is typically used to hit steel, aluminum, autos, and related goods to protect domestic production.
The other torpedo is, of course the ongoing military strike against Iran since it began on Sat, 28 Feb 2026. with a rising death toll of 1,332 civilian Iranians and counting, according to US-based Human Rights News Agency (Hrana) as of 06 Mar 2026 evening in Middle East.
Market Expected Behaviour.
Will US market undergoing the 3 phases of change this week, that many analysts have predicted ?
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Immediate.
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Further on.
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Into the ‘new’ future.
Immediate.
The rise to a 15% rate, the statutory maximum under Section 122, will likely trigger an immediate "risk-off" correction.
While a 10% rate was already baked into valuations, days after US Supreme ruled out Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs as illegal - hitting the 15% ceiling signals a more aggressive protectionist stance that will drive investors toward the US Dollar and defensive assets.
Market indices - $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are expected to pull back as the market prices in higher input costs and a "geopolitical premium" fueled by the ongoing strikes against Iran.
Further On: Next 1 to 2 Weeks after.
As the 15% duty begins hitting customs, abstract policy fears will turn into concrete margin pressure for import-heavy sectors.
This period will be marked by heightened bond market volatility.
The "double shock" of increased tariffs and elevated oil prices from the Middle East conflict will likely cause 10-year Treasury yields to rise. (see below)
Since Trump return as US president, the 10 year bond rate has hardly dipped below 4%. (see above)
Since January 2026, it is on the rise again.
This as investors bet that the Fed will be forced to delay interest rate cuts during FOMC March 17-18 meeting, in a bid to combat a sudden, policy-driven spike in inflation.
The ‘New’ Future: Next 3 – 5 Months.
Thereafter, US market will settle into a "wait-and-see" see-saw trading pattern that centres on the 150-day expiration of Section 122.
Focus will shift to the Trump administration’s ability to transition from the 5-month temporary measures into permanent Section 301 or 232 tariffs.
During this period, quarterly earnings should reveal stark divergence: while consumer-facing sectors should languish under cost pressures,.
The "war and wall" economy will favour US companies that can either (a) pass on costs or (b) provide essential security services.
Where & What To Invest.
For 2026, the Energy sector is touted to be the star performer, fueled by a rare convergence of (a) traditional geopolitical risk and (b) a modern, insatiable demand for "AI power."
While much of S&P 500 faces headwinds from 15% import tariffs and high logistics costs, energy producers are operating in a protected vacuum of surging demand and premium pricing.
Dual Catalyst: AI Power and Geopolitics
Energy sector's dominance in 2026 rests on 2 pillars.
Firstly, the AI-driven electricity crisis has forced hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) to move beyond renewable energy procurement toward securing reliable "baseload" power.
This has reinvigorated the outlook for natural gas, the bridge fuel for data centers and on-site generation.
Secondly, the military conflict with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, wiping off nearly 20% of global oil and LNG from the market.
This supply-side destruction has created a "war premium" that offsets the dampening effects of a strong US dollar and high interest rates.
Energy Sector - $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$
This oil stock (or for that matter, any oil stock) exemplifies the "double-win" strategy.
Beyond its role as a global oil major, XOM has pivoted to become a critical infrastructure partner for AI, recently collaborating with $NextEra(NEE)$ on gigawatt-scale data center power solutions that utilize "carbon-abated" natural gas. (see below)
With the outbreak of the Middle East war on 28 Feb 2026, XOM’s stock has acted as a primary sanctuary for capital:
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On Fri, 27 Feb 2026, it closed at $152.50 on the last trading day of February 2026.
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On Mon, 02 Mar 2026 - first trading day, post war, XOM spiked, opening at $159.35 and hitting intraday high of $159.60 as Brent crude surged.
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Even as broader market pulled back mid-week on tariff fears, XOM remained resilient, closing at $150.76 on 05 Mar 2026, holding much of its YTD gains (+22.92%) while retail and tech sectors languished.
For 2026, US Energy sector is no longer just a commodity play; it is the fundamental "utility" for the AI era and the "defense hedge" for a world at war, making it an alpha stock in a volatile year.
XOM Technical Indicators.
On where is Exxon Mobil heading, I always turn to technical indicators of (a) simple moving averages, (b) MACD and (c) RSI, for ‘guidance’. (see below)
As of 5 Mar 2026
Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).
Based on XOM’s Thursday closing price of $150.76 /share, the stock is sitting above its20-day ($150.20), 50-day ($150.14), and 200-day ($150.31) averages.
The stock is exhibiting a rare and highly bullish cluster formation, with the 3 moving averages converged in unison, indicating a reset of the price trend.
With XOM at $150.76, it sits just above the triple-support floor, suggesting it is gathering strength for its next directional move.
MACD.
The MACD line (0.06) sitting slightly above the Signal line (0.01), with both above the Zero line as well.
With a positive divergence of 0.05, the bullish crossover, although narrow, suggests that the selling pressure from March 3–4 pullback has exhausted itself.
Momentum is beginning to turn positive again as the market anticipates the Friday tariff implementation.
RSI.
XOM’s 14-day RSI stands at 65.08.
It is a "strong-neutral" reading, indicating healthy buying interest without reaching the "overbought" threshold of 70.
This gives XOM significant "dry powder" or room to run higher before the stock becomes technically overextended.
Defense Sector.
With scattered unrest across the globe (Russia-Ukraine war, Pakistan-Afghan border clash, India-Pakistan conflict, Thailand-Cambodia border clash) it is not difficult to accurately guess the other obvious star sector will be Defense. (see below)
Following a White House meeting on munitions production before 6 Mar 2026, US 6 top defense contractors have agreed to quadruple production of “Exquisite Class” weaponry.
The 6 defense contractors were:
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Boeing(BA)$.
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$L3Harris Technologies, Inc.(LHX)$ and
Honeywell Aerospace.
On Fri, 06 Mar 2026, the Trump administration authorized an emergency $151.8 million weapons sale to Israel, waiving congressional review requirements as the joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran continues.
The package includes 12,000 1,000-pound bomb bodies, with US State Department citing an "emergency" requiring immediate delivery.
Without the need to even look at any of the defense companies’ quarterly earnings, it will be safe to say that 2026 will be a “bumper” year for some of them.
But which defense stock is set to benefit the most from the proliferation of war ?
As much as I hate to indulge in this, I think it will have to be RTX Corporation.
RTX Corporation (RTX) has emerged as the definitive defense bellwether of 2026, serving as a primary beneficiary of the "missile megatrend" accelerated by the US-Iran conflict.
While the broader market has grappled with the inflationary pressures of a 15% tariff, RTX has demonstrated remarkable decoupling, driven by its massive $268 billion backlog and its indispensable role in replenishing air defense stocks.
The Conflict Performance.
Since the Middle East war broke out over the weekend of 28 Feb 2026, RTX’s stock has acted as a high-conviction "war hedge". (see below)
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On Fri, 27 Feb 2026, RTX closed at $202.62.
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On Mon, 02 Mar 2026, first trading day following the strikes, RTX led the defense sector rally, gapping up to open at $210.65 and closing at $212.16, an immediate jump of nearly 5% while major indices were largely in the red.
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Throughout the week, even as some sectors languished under "sometime this week" tariff warnings, RTX has maintained its elevated valuation.
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On 03 Mar 2026, It touched an intraday high of $214.50 before settling near $208.82 mid-week as investors rotated into "war-proof" cash cows.
The company’s outperformance is fundamentally tied to the nature of the current conflict.
As manufacturer of the Patriot radar and ground systems and the Standard Missile family, RTX is the literal "shield" for US and allied forces in the region.
For 2026, RTX is being valued not just as an industrial stock, but as a critical infrastructure utility for the "Security First" global economy.
Word of caution before one gets too caught up with defense stocks, any de-escalation risks a quick unwind; as current levels reflect sustained tension pricing rather than peak war euphoria. Agree ?
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Is the US-Iran war really coming to an end ?
While I remain hopeful, it might not be as short-lived as hope though.
As a retail investor, I am not going to read too much into day-to-day market sentiments - lest we get too 'emotionally' attached to the situation.
When it comes to trading one's hard earned monies, we need to use the brain and not the heart.. Agree ?
Winners
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