To The Moon

It wasn’t too long ago that I had posted on Microsoft and Oracle on 26 Jan 2026. Click here ! for details.

That was before the twist in the bidding war between $Netflix(NFLX)$ and $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$ over $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ , with PSKY eventually edging out NFLX to become the new owner of WBD.

The 'x-factor' in that victory was support by ORLC’s Executive chairman / CTO Larry Ellison’s irrevocable personal guarantee of over $40 billion (with estimates now reaching $45.7 billion) to backstop his son David’s bid.

While this move successfully wrestled the crown jewel of Hollywood away from NFLX, it has fundamentally changed the risk profile for ORCL shareholders.

This is because the irrevocable guarantee is likely secured by leveraging Ellison’s massive stake in ORCL.

As such, any downward pressure on ORCL will carry the ghost of a 'margin call' risk.

Against this backdrop of high-stakes family ambition and media consolidation will be how ORCL’s latest AI infrastructure struggles are to be measured.

The $300 Billion Stargate.

ORCL’s aggressive transformation from a legacy software provider into an AI cloud powerhouse is facing its most significant stress test.

The centerpiece of this strategy, the "Stargate" data center project with OpenAI, is showing signs of strain.

While ORCL has disputed reports of total collapse, it has nevertheless, confirmed that plans to expand the flagship Abilene, Texas campus by 600 megawatts have been abandoned due to disagreements over financing terms and shifting capacity forecasts from OpenAI.

Compounding negotiation hurdles are operational "hiccups"

Reliability issues at the Texas data centre have reported soured relations between ORCL and its development partner, Crusoe. This included:

• Winter weather-induced failures in its liquid-cooling infrastructure, that is essential to keep thousands of $30,000 Nvidia GPUs from melting.

• Taking the facilities offline for days; infuriated both OpenAI and Crusoe.

With $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ being courted to take up the excess capacity (vacated by OpenAI), and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reportedly injecting $150 million deposit to ensure the site continues to host its hardware - all points to a growing instability in ORCL’s primary anchor partnership with Sam Altman’s firm.

Balance Sheet Under Siege

The cost of Larry Ellison’s $300 billion AI bet has left ORCL’s balance sheet looking increasingly precarious.

To fund its massive build-out, ORCL has accumulated a staggering debt load now estimated at approximately $134.6 billion as of February 2026.

The sheer magnitude of this spending, confirmed at a $50 billion capital requirement for FY2026, is burning through cash at a rate that has resulted in a trailing 12-month negative free cash flow of -$13.18 billion.

And, Wall Street had reacted with visible alarm.

At Barclays, analysts had recently slashed ORCL’s price target by -26%, from $310 to $230, ahead of Q3 earnings release.

Barclays still maintains an “Overweight” rating for ORCL due to its long-term potentials.

However, they warn of (possible) severe margin headwinds as upfront lease expenses and infrastructure costs outpace immediate revenue gains.

Layoffs & Restructuring

In a (desperate) bid to preserve cash, ORCL is reportedly preparing for its most significant workforce reduction in years.

Reports suggest that between 20,000 to 30,000 employees could be laid off to free up approximately $8 billion to $10 billion in liquidity. (see below)

These cuts, are touted to target some roles that ORCL believes AI will eventually replace, reflecting a "cash crunch" that management can no longer ignore.

The restructuring, expected to cost $1.6 billion in severance alone, underscores the massive financial pivot the company is attempting while simultaneously recovering from a nearly half loss of its market capitalization since its September 2025 peak.

Q3 2026 Quarterly Earnings.

When quarterly numbers finally dropped after market close on 10 Mar 2026, the headline print was anything but a train wreck.

Let’s be clear, Q3 2026 earnings proved that demand is real and monetization is accelerating.

For the last quarter of 2025:

• Total revenue: came in at $17.2 billion, vs $16.91 billion expected. Compared to Q3 2025, it is up +22% YoY with organic total revenue growth above +20% for the first time in over 15 years. (see below)

• Cloud revenue (IaaS & SaaS): reached $8.9 billion, growing +44% - landing at the high end of guidance, with cloud infrastructure alone delivered approximately $4.9 billion, ahead of Street expectations of $8.85 billion.

• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): came in at $1.79 vs analysts’ consensus of $1.70 vs Q3 2025’s $1.49, that’s about +21% YoY gain, above ORCL’s guidance range. (see below)

• Earnings per share (GAAP) : came in at $1.27, up +24% YoY.

• Net income rose to $3.72 billion vs Q3 2025’s $2.94 billion, that’s a +26.53% YoY gain.

• P/E Ratio: came in at 28.12

• Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): surged +325% to a staggering $553 billion.

Outlook and guidance:

Management has also highlighted:

• Triple‑digit growth in AI infrastructure.

• Multi‑cloud database revenue up over +500%.

• A large portion of future OCI growth is already embedded in a massive RPO backlog.

For current quarter, ORCL sees $1.92 - $1.96 in earnings per share (adjusted), with revenue growth between 19% - 20%.

LSEG’s consensus included $1.70 per share and 20% revenue growth.

ORCL’s strong operating results arrived alongside confirmation that capex is exploding with ORCL’s Capex surging by roughly +269% YoY in the first 3 quarters, reaching about $12.5 billion YTD.

Full‑year capex is still expected to approach the previously telegraphed $50 billion level.

Will just one quarter of earnings be able to calm market’s concerns / jitters over ORCL’s AI build‑out, that is burning cash faster than it can be earned ?

Technical Analysis.

With Q3 earnings out, the internet is already buzzing with articles singing praises about ORCL latest earnings.

To me, it’s not a sure win - not yet, not when the Middle East conflict is still ongoing.

As to whether ORCL’s stock price will commence recovery, I look at its technical analysis. (see below)

As of 11 Mar 2026

ORCL's technical indicators from the 12-month chart with its recent price surge to around $163 amid a broader downtrend from higher levels earlier in 2026.

(1) Simple Moving Average (SMA).

• Based off 11 Mar 2026’s closing price ($163.12), it is marginally above its 20-day SMA ($152.10) and below its 50-day SMA ($168.08) and way off its 200-day SMA ($220.34).

• This setup signals short-term bullish momentum from the latest Q3 2026 earnings rally.

• However mid-term bearish pressure persists as the price remains under longer-term averages, suggesting potential resistance ahead.

Will a "Golden Cross" materializes as the 50-day SMA begins to trend back toward and (maybe) above the 200-day SMA ? Only time will tell.

MACD

• ORCL’s MACD line (-3.28), is well above Signal Line (-5.61), with both indicators remain firmly below the Zero line.

• This reflects a persistent underlying downtrend and notable weakness in ORCL's current trajectory.

• Stock price is still experiencing a ‘technical’ breakdown, characterized by significantly expanding negative momentum as the gap between the MACD and Signal line widens.

• Lastly, positive divergence (+2.33) indicates that downward momentum is slowing rather than strengthening, implying selling pressure may be easing and a price bottom could be forming.

RSI

• With 14-day RSI coming in around 55, ORCL has moved into neutral territory post-rally.

• Short-term, this indicates reduced selling pressure and room for upside; mid-term, staying below 70 avoids overbought conditions.

• One thing to note is failure to hold above 50 could resume the downtrend.

Investment or Divestment?

With the latest earnings data on hand and the technical indicators mapped out - deciding whether to invest or divest in ORCL, depends very much on (a) investor's time horizon and (b) risk profile (stomach for volatility):

The Case for Divestment:

For conservative or short-term investors, the red flags are numerous.

ORCL is currently a "show me" story with:

• A heavily leveraged balance sheet.

• Negative cash flow.

• A stock that’s "stuck in reverse" for months.

With its credit rating on negative watch (see below) and reliable infrastructure partners like OpenAI diversifying their needs potentially, the risk of a "liquidity trap" or further equity dilution is high.

The "Stargate" setbacks signal that the path to AI dominance is (a) far more expensive and (b) technically fragile than initially marketed.

Q3 2026 earnings have not fully address these concerns.

Although revenue & profits beat expectations, earnings report also confirmed 2 major risks:

• Infrastructure spendings remain massive.

• Heavy reliance on just a few giant AI customers.

Instead of fortifying the stock, these earnings prove that ORCL remains a high-stakes gamble.

The Case for Investment:

For the patient investor, current "blood in the streets", evident in ORCL stock price -50% price drop and extreme negative sentiment, could represent a generational entry point.

ORCL has successfully secured 4.5 gigawatts of future capacity for OpenAI and remains one of the few players (alongside Amazon and Microsoft) capable of operating at this scale.

If management can successfully navigate this "cash crunch" through 2026 and weather the margin squeeze, the infrastructure being built today could yield massive, high margin returns by 2030.

Like it or not, Q3 2026 earnings have provided a positive outlook.

The results showed that ORCL (AI & Cloud infrastructure engines) can achieve over +20% organic growth in both revenue and profits, even while spending heavily on new infrastructure.

Furthermore, the cloud business is already performing better than most analysts predicted.

For investors with a 5-to-7 year outlook, the long-term argument for ORCL has improved.

The stock is currently “cheap” when compared to its September 2025 peak.

Its rapidly growing AI revenue and a massive backlog of signed contracts, virtually guarantee the future cloud growth that analysts expect.

What Else To Consider ?

To sweeten the case for ORCL will be to gently remind readers that ORCL has a 15% equity stake in the separated US TikTok data operations

its been 2 months after TikTok’s US operations have officially landed in the hands of a group of investors, ORCL has disclosed its stake in the joint venture at roughly $2 billion.

In its latest quarterly financial filing on Wednesday, ORCL said it recorded “non-marketable debt investments and equity securities and related instruments” of $2.2 billion for the period ended 28 Feb 2026.

More importantly, ORCL has confirmed that it will begin reflecting financial results from its 15% equity stake in TikTok US starting in Q4 2026 (quarter ending 31 May 2026).

The earning/s will appear as a single line item under "Non-operating income/loss" on the income statement. Investors, watch out for this in the next quarter.

With all the facts, technical readings and even potential TikTok earnings laid bare - is ORCL a “Buy” now or let’s wait for the US-Iran war to be over before considering ? I have my answer, do you ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• LVMUY - Exit now or Be trapped forever ?

• US Market 2026 winners - War & Wattage !

• Inflation kills US Market tis week, like US Jobs ?

• Do you think a miracle has befallen on ORCL with its latest earnings out ’?

• Do you think it is more prudent to observe ORCL a little more before jumping in ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents