Israel and Jordan extract massive amounts of potash from the mineral-rich waters of the Dead Sea. Together, they account for roughly 6% to 8% of global supply. A regional war directly threatens these operations—and their ability to export.
But here’s the bigger picture: the global potash market was already fragile. Russia and Belarus, which historically supply about 35% to 40% of the world’s potash, have been heavily sanctioned. When the market loses access to Eastern European potash , and Middle Eastern potash is threatened by war and blocked shipping lanes, the world turns to the single safest, largest reserve of potash on Earth—Saskatchewan, Canada.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Israel contribute roughly 12% to 13% of the world’s total physical phosphate rock. If shipping lanes in the Red Sea or the Mediterranean are compromised, a huge chunk of physical phosphate rock is trapped. That’s the direct impact.
But there’s also the indirect impact. Phosphate fertilizer production doesn’t just require the rock—it also needs sulfur (a byproduct of oil and gas refining) and ammonia (linked to natural gas prices). If nitrogen is an energy play and potash is a pure mining logistics play, phosphate is a hybrid supply chain play. It requires rock, oil byproducts, and natural gas derivatives to all come together. When the Middle East is in turmoil, all three inputs are at risk simultaneously.
But what’s less obvious—and arguably more interesting—is how the price hikes are spreading into fertilizers, chemicals, and industrial gases. These aren’t the first sectors you’d think of when a Middle Eastern shipping lane shuts down. But once you follow the supply chain, it makes perfect sense.
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