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03-23 01:22

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  

Investor sentiment turns cold amid selloff, with the market at a pivotal point to determine if the correction is over or just halftime; hence, the primary debate remains whether this week's selloff signifies a "clearing of the decks" with bad news priced in, or the start of a deeper slide

With the S&P 500 (.SPX) testing critical 6500 support, there is potential for a bounce; however, failure to hold this level risks a deeper slide.

Extreme retail pessimism, a contrarian "buy" signal indicating a market bottom, may not prompt a quick recovery if broader conditions remain weak, with geopolitical tensions possibly validating rather than reversing the pessimism

The 52% bearish reading suggests a possible sentiment bottom, making "buy the dip" appealing for contrarian investors, while the "follow the trend" approach is more suitable in a macro context, as the Fed has turned its back on the market, and without a rate cut or a real end to the war, 6500 could ultimately become a "trap" 。。。

Investor Sentiment Turns Cold Amid Selloff: Is Correction Over or Just Halftime?

@Tiger_comments：
Yesterday, the market endured a violent V-shaped reversal. Oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ surged at the open, dragging $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down as much as 1%. The tide turned after Trump stated the war would "end very soon," coupled with reports that Israel, at Trump’s request, would suspend further strikes on Iranian gas fields. As oil retreated, equities clawed back most losses, with the S&P 500 ultimately closing down a modest 0.27%. Retail Sentiment is Turning Cold The mood among U.S. retail investors is cooling significantly, with the Fear & Greed Index slipping back into "Extreme Fear." According to the latest weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII): Bearish Sentiment: Jumped from 46.4% last week to 52%, hitting its highest level since May last year. Bullish Sentiment: Slipped from 31.9% to 30.4%, its lowest point since last September. Neutral Sentiment: Stands at a mere 17.6%, also at the lower end of the historical range. Current market sentiment has moved beyond "caution" and is now leaning decisively toward pessimism. The "Fed Put" is Dead: Can Trump Still Save the Market? As asset prices tumbled this week, the Federal Reserve offered no olive branch. The latest "Dot Plot" shows most officials still expect only one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, with the timing remaining a mystery. Compared to December, the number of hawks supporting zero cuts this year has increased. Market bets for two or three cuts have evaporated, narrowing down to a single cut at most for 2026. Key Fed Takeaways: Inflation Forecast Hiked: The Fed raised its 2026 median core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%, acknowledging that price pressures remain significantly above the 2% target. Powell’s "Hard Truth": Jerome Powell stated that the impact of the US-Iran conflict remains unclear and progress on cooling inflation is "not as significant as previously hoped." He emphasized that if oil price shocks bleed into core inflation and no significant progress is seen, "we will not cut rates." 💬 Strategic Discussion Is this week’s selloff a "clearing of the decks" (bad news priced in) or the start of a deeper slide? 1. Can S&P 500 safegaurd 6500 Suppor? 2. Retail Pessimism — Contra-Indicator or Warning? Historically, extreme retail pessimism can be a contrarian "buy" signal. 3. How do you view this shift? A. Buy the Dip: The 52% bearish reading suggests we are near a sentiment bottom; Trump’s intervention will eventually stabilize oil. B. Follow the Trend: The Fed has turned its back on the market. Without a rate cut or a real end to the war, 6500 is a "trap." Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Investor Sentiment Turns Cold Amid Selloff: Is Correction Over or Just Halftime?

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