To The Moon

3 END OF WAR trades to focus on (explained)

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ lost its most important line in the sand the 200SMA at $660 on Thursday.

That changes everything. The last time SPY dropped under 200SMA was 1 year ago on March 10, 2025 and it dropped from $580 to $480.

For months, that trendline acted as silent support… now it’s resistance. Every bounce into it is likely to be sold until the US and IRAN war is over.

Here's the update on the war:

1. Backdoor Outreach — No Formal Talks

Messages relayed through intermediaries between Washington and Tehran. Goal is a full conflict resolution deal not just a ceasefire. No negotiations confirmed by either side.

2. Trump Pauses Power Grid Strikes

Trump announced a 5-day pause on Iran power grid strikes, citing "productive conversations" about a full resolution of hostilities.

3. Iran Denies Everything

Iran's Parliament Speaker and Foreign Ministry both flatly deny any discussions have taken place since the war began. Tehran calls Trump's claims market manipulation.

4. Gulf States Getting Dragged In

Saudi Arabia and UAE losing patience as Iranian strikes hit ports, energy facilities, and airports. They join the war only if Iran targets Gulf power and water infrastructure threshold not yet crossed.

5. Strait of Hormuz = Global Energy Crisis

Iran's near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz 20% of world oil/LNG flow is the worst energy disruption since the 1970s. 3,000+ vessels stranded.

6. US Signaling an Exit

Trump posted the US is "close to meeting objectives" and considering winding down. Iran's missiles, navy, air, and nuclear capabilities described as degraded but no ceasefire framework exists yet.

We’re now sitting between $650–$653, a key demand zone that has held multiple times. If buyers step in here, we can see a short-term relief bounce towards $660 again!

But lose this level with conviction → next downside opens fast toward $644, where stronger demand previously stabilized price.

The entire market on SALES right now and inflation is at risk of going higher ONLY if this war continues for at least 3 months. We assume this war ends less then 3 months time and possibly end of March and Early April. Trump wants to end the war quickly has it puts pressure on average Americans.

3 END OF WAR plays and strategies:

1. Focus on SWINGS with longer-term expiry (6–12 months)

This is where asymmetry wins you’re buying fear while positioning for a macro resolution.

Examples (LEAPS ideas):

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : March 2027 $200–$240 calls → positioned near demand zones

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : March 2027 $400–$500 calls → high beta rebound play

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$ : March 2027 $350–$400 calls → strong base + AI tailwinds

The goal isn’t perfect timing it’s time in the market during recovery.

2. Wait for $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ spike (30–40+) before scaling aggressively

This is your signal of peak fear and forced selling.

When volatility spikes, options become expensive but directional conviction matters more than price perfection. Scale into: SPY, NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, TSLA calls.

This is when institutions accumulate the most because VIX doesnt stay abvoe 30 for a long time less than 15 days it would drop and SPY bounces hard.

3. Short OIL into resolution (mean reversion trade)

War premium inflates oil peace collapses it.

Trade idea:

• $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ : Buy Sept–October 2026 $65–$70 puts

• Or use put spreads (e.g. $70/$60) to reduce cost and control risk

As tensions ease, crude unwinds → energy names follow.

These are swing plays to capitalize from the discount and assuming war ends. If you don't like to swing you can scalp because the volatility is super good since the VIX is above 25 at the moment.

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