The question now is really about oil, war risk, and market timing, so we need to separate two things:
1. Will oil make new highs
2. Whether this is a good time to buy stocks
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Will oil set a new high?
Short answer: Yes, there is a real possibility, but it depends on whether energy infrastructure or the Strait of Hormuz is affected.
Historically, oil spikes when:
Supply disruption
Tanker routes blocked
Energy infrastructure bombed
War spreads regionally
If Iran oil exports or Strait of Hormuz shipping is disrupted:
Oil can spike very fast
Prices can overshoot fundamentals
Then crash later when fear fades
Rough scenario framework:
No supply disruption → Oil $95–110
Limited infrastructure strikes → $110–130
Strait of Hormuz disruption → $130–180 spike possible
Full regional war → temporary spike above previous highs
So new highs are possible but event-driven, not purely economic.
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Good chance to add stocks or not?
This is the more important question.
Market behaviour during geopolitical shocks is usually:
Stage Market Behaviour
Shock news Stocks drop
Oil spike Inflation fear
Fed delay rate cuts Market weak
War stabilises Market recovers
Oil falls Big rally
So typically: War headlines → short term bearish → medium term bullish after panic
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What Buffett would probably do
Buffett does not buy during uncertainty.
He buys when panic selling happens.
So the key level is not oil.
The key is S&P drawdown.
Rough guide:
S&P -10% → normal correction
S&P -15% → starting to be interesting
S&P -20% → good buying zone
S&P -30% → aggressive buying
S&P -40% → generational buying
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My strategic view (very important)
Right now is probably: Too early to go all in, but not wrong to start scaling in.
Better strategy than guessing bottom:
Keep cash
Add slowly on big red days
Do not chase green days
Buy fear, not rallies
Example approach:
Add 20% now
Add 20% if market drops another 5–7%
Add 30% if correction hits 15–20%
Keep last 30% for panic selloff
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Big picture
The biggest mistake investors make: They wait for good news to buy. But markets bottom when news is worst.
So the real question is not:
> Will oil go higher?
The real question is:
> Will fear get worse before it gets better?
If yes, then better prices are likely still ahead.
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