SPY Seasonal Cycle Signals Mid-Year Weakness Amid Macro Pressure
This is 99-year seasonality $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ across the 4-year presidential cycle:
This is where you are:
1. Typical pattern:Election year → modest uptrend
2. Post-election → volatility/drawdowns
3. Mid-cycle → weakness / chop (you are here)
4. Pre-election → strong rally
This chart shows the peak around April
then weakness into Septemer.
Then massive rally into pre-election year
Here's 4 critical things to pay attention to (if the SPY sells off badly):
1. Rates aren’t coming down and that’s a problem
The market rallied on the idea of cuts.
2. Inflation is re-accelerating at the worst time
We were trending toward 2%…
Now back above 3%.
This traps the Fed.
They can’t cut.
3. Oil + war = earnings compression
If oil keeps pushing higher:
Costs go up for companies
Consumers spend less
Margins get squeezed
Earnings estimates look fine… until they don’t.
4. Cash is finally competing with stocks
This is the silent shift most people miss.
4–5% risk-free returns exist again
Bonds, CDs, money markets are attractive
Big money doesn’t need to chase risk anymore.
The truth is here, when capital has options, equities lose demand.
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