Gold: Weekly Market Review& Key News
I. Weekly Market Review: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$
As of Friday (April 17th) in Asian trading, international gold has recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains, accumulating a rise of approximately 18% since the rebound began at the 50-week moving average. The overall trend this week was one of initial rise followed by a pullback:
Early Week High:Gold prices rebounded from a low of $4644.35, reaching a high of around $4890.
Mid-Week Pullback: After rising above $4870 in Asian trading on Wednesday, prices faced resistance and retreated, giving back some of the gains. Gold prices were capped by the $4800 psychological level.
High-Level Consolidation: On Thursday and Friday, gold prices consolidated in a narrow range between $4767 and $4805, with bulls and bears repeatedly battling around the $4800 level.
Friday's Closing Price: Gold closed around $4790, exhibiting a high-level tug-of-war pattern of limited upward and downward movement.
II. Key Weekend News
1. US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement – A Core Variable Determining Next Week's Opening Direction
The ceasefire agreement expires on April 22 (next Wednesday), currently in a critical window. Based on the latest news from various sources:
Positive Signals: According to the Associated Press, citing sources, mediators are close to reaching an agreement on extending the temporary US-Iran ceasefire. Both sides have "agreed in principle" to extend the ceasefire agreement, which expires on April 22, to buy more time for diplomatic maneuvering. Trump announced on Thursday that Israeli and Lebanese leaders intend to hold talks on a ceasefire, while also claiming that an agreement with Iran is "very close."
Uncertainty Remains: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei clearly stated to RIA Novosti that the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a blatant provocation and could directly lead to the collapse of the ceasefire agreement. Reuters, citing Iranian sources, also reported that US and Iranian negotiators have lowered their expectations for a lasting peace agreement and are currently only seeking a "temporary memorandum" to avoid further escalation of the conflict. • US Troop Increase in Middle East: Reports indicate that the US military will deploy approximately 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days, as the Trump administration uses this to pressure Iran into reaching an agreement. White House Press Secretary Levitt responded that Trump has "wisely kept all options open" in case Iran does not abandon its nuclear ambitions and an agreement acceptable to the United States cannot be reached.
Impact on Gold:
Scenario | Gold's Reaction Logic
Ceasefire Agreement Extended, Peace Talks Progress:** Short-term safe-haven demand weakens, putting pressure on gold prices; however, falling oil prices will strengthen expectations of a Fed rate cut, which is beneficial for gold in the medium to long term.
Ceasefire Breaks, Conflict Escalates Again:** Safe-haven funds flood in, pushing up gold prices; a rebound in oil prices may exacerbate inflationary pressures, limiting the Fed's room for rate cuts, creating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
2. Fed Policy Path
Rising Rate Cut Expectations:As ceasefire expectations rise, falling oil prices cool inflation expectations. The market's probability of a Fed rate cut this year has risen to approximately 32%, completely reversing the initial rate hike expectations from the beginning of the conflict.
Officials Speak Out:On Saturday (April 17), 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin, along with Fed Governor Waller, will speak. Their statements will provide important reference for the Fed's policy path next week. Warsh Hearing Approaching: The hearing for Warsh, Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, will be held on April 21 (next Tuesday). Market opinions on his policy stance are widely divided, potentially exacerbating market volatility.
3. Global Central Banks Continue Gold Purchases
The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has increased its holdings for three consecutive days this week, adding approximately 5.72 tons to its total holdings, reaching 1052.906 tons, indicating a continued increase in institutional investment.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
