To The Moon

For week ending Fri, 17 Apr 2026, there were a handful of ‘significant’ US economic reports released.

Did they influence US market sentiments were merely published as scheduled ? Let’s find out. (see below)

• Tue, 14 Apr 2026 - US Producer price index (PPI) for March 2026.

• Wed, 15 Apr 2026 - US Home builder confidence index for March 2026.

• Wed, 15 Apr 2026 - Fed Beige book.

• Thu, 16 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing.

US Producer Price Index (PPI).

The US producer inflation report released by Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) for March 2026, was softer than expected:

• Headline PPI (MoM) rose to +0.5% vs 1.1% forecast vs a downwards revised February 2026’s +0.5%; suggesting a plateau rather than an acceleration.

• Headline PPI (YoY) rose to +4.0% vs 4.6% forecast vs February 2026’s +3.4%.

• It is the highest annual reading since early 2023, largely driven by (a) a 15.7% spike in gasoline prices and (b) an 8.5% jump in the total energy index.

• All this points to moderating wholesale inflation, even though producer prices are still running hotter than the Fed would likely want.

• Core PPI (MoM) ‘fell’ to +0.1% vs 0.4% forecast vs February 2026’s +0.3%.

• Core PPI (YoY) remained at +3.8% vs 4.2% forecast vs February 2026’s 3.8%.

More importantly, headline PPI annual rate hit a 3-year high, serves as the final "clean” baseline before the 02 Apr 2026 tariff implementations reshape supply chain costs.

What has not been covered in detail, is the intermediate pipeline that represents the "front end" of the inflation engine, monitoring the costs of goods and materials that businesses purchase long before they ever reach the final consumer.

This is divided into stages of production, with:

• Stage 1 representing the earliest raw materials, and

• Processed intermediate goods representing the middle of supply chain.

In the latest March 2026 report, this pipeline issued its loudest upstream warning since late 2022, as processed goods for intermediate demand surged +2.6% MoM and +6.6% YoY.

This heat was primarily driven by a massive +42.0% spike in diesel fuel and a +6.2% annual gain in Stage 1 demand for inputs like primary basic organic chemicals and metals.

Because these specific categories are highly sensitive to trade policy, the data suggests that the production pipeline was already running at multi-year highs even before the sweeping 02 Apr 2026 tariff implementations began to take effect.

This creates a precarious "baseline" where existing cost pressures in the manufacturing and logistics sectors may soon be amplified by new import duties.

US Home builder confidence index

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for April 2026, was released on 15 Apr 2026 as planned.

The latest, indicates a sharp deterioration in builder sentiment.

The index fell -4 points to 34, missing analyst consensus of 37 and marking its lowest level since September 2025.

Latest decline effectively halts the tentative recovery seen in early 2026, as the housing sector enters the typically busy spring selling season under significant economic strain.

Pessimism drivers.

The downturn is primarily attributed to a "triple” threat of rising costs, geopolitical risk, and financing hurdles:

Energy-Driven Material Costs:

Approximately 62% of builders reported price hikes for construction materials due to surging fuel costs, a direct byproduct of the US-Iran conflict.

It is a fallacy that Trump said US has all the oil in the world and does not require Iranian oil, unlike the rest of the world. His short-sightedness is showing up in repercussions now.

Diesel and gasoline spikes have made pricing new homes increasingly difficult, with 70% of builders citing cost uncertainty as a major operational challenge.

Mortgage Rate Volatility:

Renewed inflation fears have pushed mortgage rates back toward the 7% threshold, stifling buyer demand.

This is reflected in the Buyer Traffic index, that has dropped to a dismal 22.

Bleak Outlook:

The 7-point plunge in future sales expectations suggests builders do not anticipate a quick resolution to the current headwinds, despite a slight decrease in the share of builders cutting prices - 36% (in April) vs 37% (in March).

Fed’s Beige Book.

The US’s central bank Beige book was released on 15 Apr 2026, 2 weeks ahead of its FOMC meeting on April 28-29, serving as input purpose on rate decision discussions.

For April 2026, it painted a US economy defined by "sluggishness & uncertainty".

While growth persisted at a slight-to-modest pace in 8 of 12 districts, the report highlights a growing divergence between resilient high-income spending and increasing financial strain for lower-income households.

The biggest cross-cutting theme was the Middle East conflict, that lifted energy and freight costs, complicated hiring and pricing, and pushed many firms into a wait-and-see mode.

On economic activities, the Beige book reported:

• Consumer spending rose slightly overall.

• Manufacturing improved slightly to moderately in most districts.

• Banking was generally steady with loan demand stable to up moderately.

• Housing softened across several districts as rising mortgage rates and uncertainty weighed on buyer demand, although commercial real estate improved, led by industrial and data center projects.

On US labour market, it remained relatively firm:

• Employment was "steady to up slightly".

• Layoffs were limited so far.

• Hiring was mostly for replacement or backfill with many firms increased use of temporary or contract workers rather than permanent staff.

• Wages rose at a modest to moderate pace of 3.1% over the next year (down from late 2025 estimates), with some wage pressure still visible in health care and skilled trades.

On inflation (last but not least) it is still broad-based:

• Price growth mostly remained moderate, but input costs often outpaced selling prices - squeezing margins in the process.

• Energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all districts.

• Metals prices rose in several districts due to tariffs.

• Technology, insurance, and health-care costs also climbed.

Probability of April 2026 interest cut.

Based on the Beige book assessment of overall US economy, it is very likely that Fed funds rate remains status quo at the current banding of 3.50% - 3.75% for yet another month.

Jobless Claims.

Weekly jobless claims.

For week ended 11 Apr 2026, weekly jobless claims fell by -11,000 to 207,000, below consensus of 215,000 consensus and down from a downwardly revised 218,000 the prior week. (see below)

This "beat" indicates that layoffs remain exceptionally low across the private sector, despite the ongoing regional conflicts and trade policy shifts.

However, one thing to note is that the 4-week moving average, a less volatile metric, ticked up slightly by +500 to 209,750.

This suggest that while the weekly drop was sharp, the overall trend is one of stability rather than rapid contraction.

Continuing claims.

For week ended 04 Apr 2026, continuing claims were a bit softer: rising to 1.818 million, above consensus of 1.810 million and up from a revised 1.787 million the previous week. (see above)

Continuing claims rose by +31,000, essentially landing marginally above analyst forecasts.

This increase suggests a slight "cooling" in the speed of re-hiring; while companies aren't firing workers in large numbers, the pace at which unemployed workers find their next role has slowed marginally.

Even so, the level remained historically low and still pointed to a labour market where layoffs are limited and displaced workers are not yet facing a major deterioration in re-employment conditions.

From a policy perspective, this data reinforces the Fed's "higher-for-longer" stance.

With latest unemployment rate at 4.3% and new claims remaining near 200,000, there is no evidence of a labour market "cracking" that would necessitate an emergency interest rate cut in April 2026.

US Market - Week of 17 Apr 2026.

US market delivered a spectacular performance for the week ending 17 Apr 2026.

This was largely fueled by the "cooler-than-feared" economic reports and a significant breakthrough in Middle East geopolitics. (see below)

US market for week ending 17 Apr 2026

For the week,

• DJIA: gained +3.62% (+1,729.22 to 49,447.43).

• S&P 500: gained +4.70% (+319.59 to 7,126.06).

• Nasdaq: gained +7.09% (+1,619.25 to 24,468.48).

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 4.03-to-1 ratio on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), where there were 623 new highs ⁠and 46 ​new lows and the S&P 500 posted 49 new 52-week highs and no new lows..

Over at Nasdaq, 3,685 stocks rose and 1,183 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners ​by a 3.11-to-1 ratio.

Trading volume was relatively strong on US exchanges, where 20.29 billion shares changed hands, compared with 19.12 billion, that’s the moving average ​for the last 20 sessions.

Standout Day: Tue, 14 Apr 2026

US market reaction on this day was a powerful combination of relief & renewed optimism.

The March PPI report at 8:30 AM ET was the main catalyst.

Although headline number remained elevated, it was the core PPI’s reading of 0.1% (well below the 0.5% forecast) that acted as a green light for risk-on sentiment.

Simultaneously, news broke of a potential extension to the US-Iran ceasefire and reports that the Strait of Hormuz was reopening.

This led to a -12% weekly collapse in WTI Crude prices, effectively removing the "energy tax" fear that had been weighing on tech stocks.

Financial stocks also boosted the day, as $Citigroup(C)$ and $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ reported their Q1 2026 earnings beats, proving the "higher-for-longer" rate environment was still benefiting big bank margins.

So, a delicate link exists between US market performance and US economic report’s readings.

Coming Week.

Below are US economic reports that will be released in the week beginning 20 Apr 2026.

Will they exert the same sentiments over US market ?

• Tue, 21 Apr 2026 - US retail sales for March 2026.

• Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly and continuing.

• Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - S&P flash US services PMI for April 2026.

• Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - S&P flash US manufacturing PMI for April 2026

• Fri, 24 Apr 2026 - US consumer sentiments (final) report for April 2026.

Many analysts see the March 2026 US retail sales report as the week's top economic highlight.

Due on Tue, 21 Apr 2026, it will reveal how much high energy prices from the Middle East war hurt consumer spending, that was already weak before the conflict began on 28 Feb 2026.

This week, focus remains on developments in the Middle East after Iran’s foreign minister said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial vessels as part of a temporary truce linked to the ceasefire in Lebanon and the broader US–Iran hostilities.

Unfortunately, the euphoria proved to be short-lived because in less than 24 hours, Iranian forces reimposed a blockade. (see below)

Iran’s supreme leader has accused the US of violating the ceasefire by maintaining a de‑facto blockade on Iranian ports.

The quick reversal underscores that the Strait remains a political bargaining chip, with Iran signaling that any disruption can be toggled on or off depending on perceived pressure from Washington and Israel.

Quarterly Earnings.

As Q1 2026 earnings season enters its 2nd major week, the narrative will be shifting from the stability of big banks (financials) to the volatility of tech and industrial giants.

The reporting window of 20 April - 24 April will be a critical litmus test for how corporate America is weathering the dual pressures of high energy costs and the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

Key Companies to Watch

This week’s heavyweights handing in their earnings report cards span across the tech, aerospace, defense and consumer staples sectors.

• Tue, 21 Apr 2026 - $GE Aerospace(GE)$.

• Tue, 21 Apr 2026 - RTX Corporation (RTX).

• Wed, 22 Apr 2026 - $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

• Wed, 22 Apr 2026 - $Boeing(BA)$

• Wed, 22 Apr 2026 - International Business Machine (IBM).

• Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - $Intel(INTC)$

• Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - $American Express(AXP)$

• Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

• Fri, 24 Apr 2026 - $Procter & Gamble(PG)$

I cannot wait to see if earnings will rally US market to new highs while monitoring the fallout once the US-Iran truce expires on Wed, 22 Apr 2026. What do you think ?

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