🚀 Intel (INTC) Q1 Earnings Preview: The "Make or Break" for 18A?
As we head into the April 23 report, the market isn't just looking at revenue—it’s looking for proof of life in the Foundry turnaround. Intel has set a low bar with a "break-even" EPS guide, but the technical undercurrents tell a more complex story.
📊 The Numbers at a Glance
Revenue Midpoint: $12.2B (Guidance: $11.7B – $12.7B).
Target EPS: $0.00 (Non-GAAP).
Gross Margin Floor: 34.5% (Watch this closely—any beat here signals better-than-expected yield).
🔍 Key "Battleground" Segments
💡 The "Secret" Metric: EUV Wafer Mix
Forget the headline loss for a second. The real indicator of Intel’s future is EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) utilization.
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The Goal: Moving from ~10% in 2025 to 15–18% this quarter.
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Why care? Higher EUV mix = fewer "multi-patterning" steps = lower costs = better yields.
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The Signal: If Gelsinger mentions "predictable yield improvements" (rumored ~7% monthly), that’s your cue that the 18A transition is actually working under the hood.
🏗️ Strategic Catalyst: The Ireland Fab Move
Intel’s recent $14.2B buyback of the 49% stake in its Ireland Fab is a massive "long-game" bet. It adds debt (~$6.5B) but proves Intel is betting the house on its own manufacturing superiority.
Intel (INTC) to Pay $14B to Buy Back Apollo (APO) Stake in Ireland Plant - Bloomberg
🏁 Summary for Tigers
Intel is currently in a "tug-of-war." The product side (AI PCs) is pulling up, while the Foundry investment is dragging down.
Bull Case: Reaffirmed positive Free Cash Flow for FY2026 + Gaudi 3 momentum.
Bear Case: Continued "supply constraints" and widening Foundry losses without new customer wins.
What’s your move? Are you buying the 18A turnaround or waiting for the Foundry losses to bottom out? 👇
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