To The Moon

After Monday’s close, Amazon announced it will invest up to an additional $25 billion into Anthropic, while Anthropic simultaneously committed to spending $100 billion on AWS over the next decade. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ rose more than 2.4% pre-market to $254. With earnings season approaching (April 29), one core question is now on the table:

This time, will Amazon become the next “Google-style re-rating”?

Over the past two weeks, Amazon has rebounded strongly by 18%, turning its year-to-date performance positive at +7.5%, completely shaking off its label as “one of the worst-performing Mag 7 stocks” at the start of the year. Now, the weakest names are Microsoft and Tesla — Amazon is no longer on that list.

1. What does Anthropic mega deal really mean for Amazon — AI Trade or AI Bubble?

Amazon’s total investment in Anthropic has now reached around $33 billion (previously $8B + this $25B), making it the largest single external bet in the global AI model race.

In return, Anthropic commits to spending over $100 billion on AWS over the next 10 years, and locking in 5 gigawatts of compute capacity for training and deploying Claude — including nearly 1GW of Trainium2/Trainium3 capacity coming online by the end of this year.

AWS customers can now access the full native Anthropic Claude interface directly within the AWS console, without additional contracts or billing relationships.

• Claude Opus 4.7 is already live on Bedrock, with SWE-bench Pro score of 64.3% and Verified score of 87.6%

• The Mythos model achieves 87% accuracy under a 3M token context window

Is This a “Circular Trade”?

Yes, some people are concerned. Is this similar to last year’s OpenAI–NVIDIA dynamic?

Amazon invests in Anthropic, and Anthropic uses that money to buy AWS — it looks like money moving from one hand to the other.

But ultimately, the market will judge based on one thing: Whether AWS revenue actually accelerates in a meaningful way

2. Amazon’s two investment thesis — Which has more upside?

AI Compute: $15B Run Rate, Still Supply-Constrained

AWS AI revenue has already surpassed a $15 billion annual run rate. Goldman describes it as “supply-constrained” — Amazon doesn’t lack customers, it lacks the ability to build data centers fast enough.

Its in-house chips Trainium and Inferentia now represent a $20 billion annualized scale, meaning Amazon is no longer fully dependent on NVIDIA in the AI compute stack, and is building its own moat.

Anthropic + Bedrock: Becoming Standard in Enterprise Procurement

This is currently the most direct commercialization path.

Now, 1 in 3 U.S. companies is paying for Anthropic models, meaning this has moved from “tech experimentation” to a fixed line item in enterprise IT budgets.

For AWS, this is one of the stickiest layers of recurring service revenue.

3. Can It Break $300? Referencing $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Re-Rating Playbook

Google’s re-rating this year was driven by a key shift: The market regained confidence in Gemini and Cloud AI commercialization, moving from a bearish narrative of “lagging OpenAI” to a bullish narrative of “ads + cloud dual engines.”

That shift led to a meaningful valuation expansion. Amazon is now at a similar narrative inflection point.

Over the past year, concerns focused on: AWS growth, AI capex, Anthropic investment returns.

But the recent price action suggests that, as AI revenue continues to be validated, the market is starting to assign Amazon a higher AI infrastructure premium.

Key Difference vs Google

Google has clearer AI monetization pathways(e.g., AI Overview ads, paid Gemini users)

Amazon’s AI revenue is currently more reflected in AWS compute consumption, and its “last mile” monetization is less clear.

That’s why its rally hasn’t been as strong as Google’s.

From the current pre-market price of $254, there is about 18% upside to $300.

Discussion

1. Anthropic’s $100B AWS commitment — do you see this as real money or an AI bubble?

2. Can Amazon replicate Google’s AI re-rating and break $300 after earnings?

3. In the AI infrastructure space, who really has pricing power now — AMZN, NVDA, or MSFT?

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