The market wants to believe the worst is over. I am not convinced.
While momentum is holding, the Iran situation and Hormuz risk remain unresolved. Markets may be pricing in diplomacy, but the underlying backdrop is still fragile.
For me, oil is the key signal. Any sharp move will quickly flow through to inflation, rates and sentiment.
This is not a clean risk-on market. It may still move higher, but the upside feels conditional.
For now, I would watch oil, shipping activity and political signals closely.
This feels like a market supported more by hope than certainty.
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