Rocket Lab is a legitimate business with real revenue growth and a smarter model than most space companies, but at a $50B market cap with no profits, -38% operating margins, and a fresh $1B share dilution, you’re paying a premium price for a future that hasn’t arrived yet. The entire bull case hinges on Neutron launching successfully and competing with Falcon 9 — that’s a single high-stakes technical and commercial bet. If Neutron delivers, the stock could re-rate significantly. If it’s delayed or underperforms, the valuation has a long way to fall. Don’t buy at current levels. Wait for the May 7 earnings call, watch what they say about Neutron timelines and cash burn, and look for an entry closer to $60–65 where the risk/reward makes more sense. The space sector tailwind is real, but that doesn’t mean you need to own it at any price.
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