AMD is the most interesting risk/reward of this entire list — a real business with real growth, but with specific landmines you need to understand.
What the numbers actually show:
• Q4 2025: revenue up 34% year-over-year to $10.3B, operating income up 101%, non-GAAP EPS of $1.53 vs $1.24 expected — a 23% beat. 
• Q1 2026 guidance calls for ~$9.8B revenue, implying 32% year-over-year growth, with 55% gross margins. 
• Long-term targets include over 60% annual data center growth, tens of billions in AI revenue by 2027, and EPS above $20 in the strategic timeframe. 
The real risks — don’t ignore these:
• AMD is forecasting zero additional China GPU revenue beyond $100M in Q1 due to export restrictions  — that’s a meaningful revenue hole given China was a significant market.
• Semi-custom SoC revenue (gaming consoles) is expected to decline by a significant double-digit percentage in 2026  as the console cycle ages. That’s a drag on overall numbers.
• The big AI GPU ramp — the MI450 series — doesn’t meaningfully kick in until Q3/Q4 2026.  So H1 results will look softer than H2, and the market may punish that gap.
Recommendation: AMD is the best-positioned “Nvidia alternative” in AI chips and the thesis is grounded in real revenue, not promises. 34 analysts rate it a Buy with a consensus target around $267.  If you don’t own it, the May 5 earnings call is your next decision point — watch whether data center GPU momentum offsets the China and console headwinds. A confirmed MI450 ramp timeline would be a green light. Current levels are reasonable but not a screaming bargain — patience for a dip toward $220–230 would give you a better margin of safety before a high-stakes H2 ramp.
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