Technical Analysis for Monday: Trading within a Downward Channel, Rebound Weak
First of all, wishing everyone a happy weekend!
Currently, gold prices are in a stalemate between bulls and bears, at a crucial juncture. The weekly chart maintains a range-bound structure; the MACD bullish momentum is weakening but has not yet formed a death cross, requiring a breakout at key levels to clarify the trend. The daily chart trend has shifted from strong to weak, with prices breaking below short-term moving averages, and the MACD showing signs of a death cross, indicating that bearish momentum is being released. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are within a short-term downward channel, with rebounds repeatedly capped by the Bollinger Middle Band, exhibiting a "lower highs, more stable lows" range-bound structure with a slight downward bias. The MACD shows no significant volume increase, indicating that bearish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion, but the bulls have not yet organized an effective counterattack.
The core strategy for next week is to establish sell orders based on the strong resistance at 4740. As long as the gold price remains below this level, the first target is 4660. If the bears successfully break below the 4660 support zone, the downtrend will be confirmed, potentially leading to further declines to 4600 or even lower. Conversely, if gold prices strengthen and effectively break through 4740, it signifies a return of the bulls, and the 4800 level should be closely watched in the future. At that point, it would be a good time to consider selling. On the news front, pay close attention to the impact of events such as the US-Iran negotiations. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$
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