To The Moon

As of April 29, approximately 27.6% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 results.

Current earnings season snapshot:

• 79% beat analyst expectations

• Blended earnings growth: +13.2% YoY

• Marks the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth

While headline numbers remain solid, market reaction has become increasingly selective.

In Q1 2026, earnings beats alone are no longer sufficient.

The decisive factor is now forward guidance.

Stocks are no longer being priced on what companies delivered last quarter, but on whether management can confidently signal continued outperformance.

Below is a breakdown of this earnings season’s three major groups.

🚀 Group 1: Real Winners

Beat + Raise = Repricing Higher

These companies delivered both strong earnings and stronger forward outlooks, resulting in significant market rewards.

$Intel(INTC)$ | The Biggest Turnaround Surprise

Q1 Results

• Revenue: $13.6B (+7% YoY)

• Non-GAAP EPS: $0.29

• 6th consecutive revenue beat

Key Catalyst

• Q2 revenue guidance: $13.8B–14.8B, above consensus

Operational Highlights

• Data Center + AI revenue: +22%

• Expanded Xeon partnership with Google

• Launched Terafab foundry initiative

Market Reaction

• Shares surged 23.6% on Apr 24

• Largest single-day gain since 1987

Takeaway Intel is transitioning from a turnaround narrative to an execution-driven story.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ | Profitability Finally Materializing

Q1 Results

• Revenue: $22.39B (+16%)

• Operating income: $940M (+136%)

Key Catalyst

• Free cash flow: +$1.44B

• Street expectation: -$1.58B outflow

Additional Highlights

• Gross margin improved to 21.1%

• Cybertruck deliveries accelerated

• FSD approved in Netherlands

Market Reaction

• Shares rose nearly 4% after hours

Takeaway Tesla showed tangible profitability progress instead of relying solely on future growth narratives.

$Boeing(BA)$ | Recovery Repricing Begins

Q1 Results

• Revenue: $22.2B (+14%)

• Core operating profit: +47%

Cash Flow Improvement

• Operating cash flow: -$179M

• Prior year: -$1.62B

Operational Signals

• Backlog reached record $695B

• 737 production stable at 42/month

• Expected increase to 47/month this summer

Guidance

• Positive free cash flow expected in 2H26

Takeaway Boeing is not yet fully recovered, but operational stabilization is improving investor confidence.

$GE Aerospace(GE)$ | Industrial Quality Leader

Q1 Results

• Revenue: $11.6B (+29%)

• Orders: +87%

• Free cash flow: $1.7B (+14%)

Operational Strength

• LEAP engine shop visits: +50%

• Backlog exceeds $210B

Guidance

• Full-year outlook trending toward high end

Takeaway In an uncertain macro environment, visibility and backlog strength remain highly valued.

Other Beat + Raise Names

• $NXP Semiconductors NV(NXPI)$: Stock +15%, strong industrial & IoT growth

• $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$: Record Markets revenue, resilient NII

• $RTX Corp(RTX)$: Free cash flow +65%

• $Texas Instruments(TXN)$: AI power infrastructure growth

⚠️ Group 2: Fake Beats

Beat but Weak Guidance = Market Punishment

The key lesson this quarter:

A beat followed by weaker guidance is often punished more severely than an outright miss.

$Coursera, Inc.(COUR)$ | Demand Deceleration Concerns

Issues

• Adjusted EPS below expectations

• Weak Q2 revenue guidance

Market Reaction

• Shares down 24.7% YTD

• Over 50% below 52-week highs

Takeaway Investors are increasingly unwilling to pay for long-duration growth stories without near-term visibility.

$Netflix(NFLX)$ | Good Quarter, Weak Outlook

Q1 Results

• Revenue: $12.25B

Issues

• Weak next-quarter guidance

• $2.8B Paramount termination payment

Market Reaction

• Shares fell approximately 9% after hours

Takeaway For mature growth companies, forward guidance sensitivity remains extremely high.

$Wells Fargo(WFC)$ | NII Pressure Remains Key Risk

Q1 Results

• EPS: $1.60 (slight beat)

Issues

• Net interest income below expectations

• FY NII guidance lowered:

  • Prior: ~$104.5B

  • Revised: ~$103B

Takeaway For banks, NII remains a primary valuation anchor.

$IBM(IBM)$ | Beat Without Raise

Q1 Results

• Revenue: $15.9B (+9%)

• EPS beat expectations

Issue

• Full-year guidance unchanged

Market Reaction

• Shares declined approximately 10%

Takeaway With AI expectations already priced in, maintaining guidance is insufficient.

Other Weak Names

• $Becton Dickinson(BDX)$: Lowered FY EPS guidance

• $3M(MMM)$: Weak earnings quality concerns

• $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$: Amazon volume pressure

• $Agilent(A)$: Slight EPS miss

📊 Group 3: Stable Operators

No Fireworks, But Reliable Execution

Not all winners need explosive upside.

Some companies simply reinforced investor confidence.

$Coca-Cola(KO)$

Highlights

• Earnings beat

• Raised comparable EPS growth outlook to 8%-9%

Growth Drivers

• Premiumization

• Smaller packaging strategy

• Zero sugar and tea growth

$Pepsi(PEP)$

Guidance Reaffirmed

• Organic revenue growth: 2%-4%

• Core EPS growth: 4%-6%

Capital Return

• Approximately $8.9B to shareholders

🔮 What’s Next: Mag 7 Earnings Stress Test

Apr 29 After Close

• $Alphabet(GOOG)$

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$

Combined 2026 AI capex commitments now exceed:

$200B+

Key questions:

• Can cloud growth justify elevated capex?

• Is AI monetization becoming measurable?

• Which company shows the first guidance cracks?

Apr 30 After Close

• $Apple(AAPL)$ reports

💡 Key Takeaways

Q1 2026 earnings season confirms one major shift:

The market has evolved from “Did you beat?” to “Can you keep beating?”

Current framework:

✅ Beat + Raise = Rewarded ❌ Beat but Cut / No Raise = Punished

Examples:

• INTC: +23.6%

• IBM: -10%

• NFLX: -9%

For investors:

Do not focus solely on EPS headlines.

Pay closer attention to:

• Guidance revisions

• Management tone

• Capital allocation outlook

In a market shaped by tariffs, rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, guidance quality matters more than earnings quantity.

Data as of Apr 29, 2026. Some results released after market close.

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