Ross Dong's H2 2026 Playbook — Fed Pivot, AI Hardware Supercycle & Gold
Speaker: Ross Dong @Ross_Macro_Trading (Founder of Gongxing Academy, Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management)
Live Date: May 12, 2026 ( Review Link>>)
@Ross Macro Trading
🎯 3 Key Takeaways
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Fed pivot is coming. Market underpricing aggressive rate cuts in H2; AI is a structural deflationary force.
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AI = hardware cycle. Memory & optics are in a supply-tight supercycle; software faces disruption.
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Rotate, don’t chase. Balance AI/Tech with neglected cyclicals (airlines, cruise lines) and gold.
🏛️ The 5 Strategic Pillars
|
# |
Pillar |
Core Focus |
|
1 |
Fed Policy & Macro |
Rate cuts, QT slowdown, balance sheet dynamics |
|
2 |
Micro Asset Strategy |
Gold, USD, energy, US-China posture |
|
3 |
Equity Market Framework |
Sector timing, valuation dispersion, earnings resilience |
|
4 |
AI & Tech Arms Race |
Big tech capex, infrastructure ROI |
|
5 |
Portfolio Construction |
Rebuild for the 2026 bull market |
📊 Macro Snapshot
Fed & Inflation
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Kevin Warsh pushes trimmed-mean inflation (reads lower than core PCE/CPI).
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Expect aggressive rate cuts + slow QT under new leadership.
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Market too conservative; mispricing the pivot risk.
Valuation
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S&P 500 P/E at upper bound of fair value (~21x).
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Rally concentrated in mega-cap AI; need broader participation for sustainability.
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Base case: Consolidation phase to let fundamentals catch up.
Geopolitics
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Trump visits China this week. Watch for trade boards, energy/soybean deals, Taiwan language shifts.
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Iran conflict = known risk, digested by market. Recovery tied to liquidity, not headlines.
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BOJ intervening in FX; USD/JPY at 150–160 (vs. 100–110 a decade ago).
🏭 Sector Rotation
|
Sector |
Signal |
Action |
|
AI Infrastructure |
Massive earnings beats |
Core holding |
|
Memory & Optics |
Supply-tight supercycle |
Nervous system of AI; pricing power |
|
SaaS/Software |
Under AI scrutiny |
Own vertical/AI-enabled; avoid generative prompt-ware |
|
Cyclicals/Value |
Neglected, low multiples |
Money rotation candidate: airlines, cruise lines, financials, energy, healthcare |
🤖 AI Deep Dive
Capex & Margins
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Hyperscalers seeing FCF contraction as AI capex scales up and buybacks scale back.
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AI cost efficiency boosting margins across logistics, customer service, and beyond.
Demand Drivers
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Chinese LLM token usage surging exponentially → confirms AI app layer maturation.
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Sustains demand for high-end compute, storage, memory.
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US facing shortages in compute, power, and memory chips.
🎯 The Playbook
AI/Tech Core
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$Intel(INTC)$ — Trimmed after parabolic run; trillion-dollar potential but take profits.
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$Micron Technology(MU)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ — Low PEs, supercycle beneficiaries. Ross holds both.
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$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , $Corning(GLW)$ , $Nokia Oyj(NOK)$ — Watch on pullbacks.
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UBT — Quantum computing interest.
Cyclical Rotation
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Airlines, Cruise Lines — Deep value, neglected.
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$Boeing(BA)$ — Catalyst if China deal includes Boeing purchases.
Hard Assets & Safety
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$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ — PBOC & global central banks accumulating. Strong floor. Buy gradually (~3% tranches).
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$Silver - main 2607(SImain)$ $Silver - main 2607(SImain)$ , US Bonds — Buy dips; market mispricing H2 rate cuts.
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Bitcoin— Inflows noted. $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$
IPO Watch
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2026–2027 IPO wave approaching scale. OpenAI, SpaceX seeking public access.
⚠️ Risk Rules
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Take profits on parabolic semis. INTC trimmed; these moves eventually implode.
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Don’t chase the index. Rally is top-heavy. Wait for average stocks to participate.
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Stagflation watch. Q2 energy/fuel costs will hit CPI. Q3/Q4 stagflation risk if Fed pivots too late.
💬 Words from Ross
"Major trends do not end in a day or a week. It takes time for their internal logic to fully unfold, which shows the gravity of market forces."
"Fate with 60 years of market cycles under his belt reminds us that the crowd isn't always right, so opportunities often arise when the phone stops ringing."
"Beyond tech, AI - enabled cost efficiency is impacting every industry, from logistics to customer service, leading to a revolution in profit margins."
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A few sessions ago the talk was that names like MU and SNDK had already run too hard.
Now one supply shift later and people are back to asking whether the real move is only just starting.
That’s why this part of the market is so hard to trade.
When supply tightens, pricing power can change fast, and suddenly what looked “too expensive” starts getting re-rated again.
I still think memory is one of the most important pieces of the AI hardware story.
The real question now is whether this is the start of a bigger leg higher, or just another sentiment spike that gets sold.
Are you treating this as a real breakout in the memory theme, or just hype getting overheated again? Let’s hear it Tigers!