To The Moon

U.S. equities retreated from recent record highs as geopolitical friction and a sharp bond market decline weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ printed a muted week with a net gain of +0.13%, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed muted -0.1%, and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ declined -0.38%.

Sector dynamics told a divergent story. Energy outperformed sharply, rising +6.7% during the week ( $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ ), while high-growth equities bore the brunt of the selloff. Discretionary dropped 3.1%, reflecting renewed caution. Materials and utilities also surrendered 2% each as Treasury volatility rippled across the complex.

Macro sentiment remained clouded by competing crosscurrents. President Trump’s diplomatic visit to China fueled optimism around potential purchases of Boeing aircraft and agricultural goods, though formal trade agreements remain unconfirmed.

Meanwhile, Middle East geopolitical instability sparked a significant bond market selloff as traders repriced for potential supply shocks, creating the additional headwinds that ended the week on a cautious note. Discussions of Chinese purchases of U.S. oil and expanded access for financial service providers like Visa continue to circulate, but confirmations have yet to materialize.

The Power of Levels: Performance Review

Support and resistance levels acted as essential references this week to validate momentum, protect capital, and set clear objectives based on technical indicators.

• For this week, our expectation for a bearish move in $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ was proven true. With a target of 296.3 (a -1.9% move), the level was reached with precision on Tuesday, and revisited on Friday.

• $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Reached my bullish target of 445 for a 3.9% rally at the beginning of the week. As mentioned on Wednesday, caution was essential because the price looked overbought, as presented in my specific charts. This was a highly successful trade, and it highlights why setting strict targets at this market juncture is essential to avoid giving back gains, or why utilizing daily levels for narrower metrics to set tighter trailing stops.

• $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ : Reclaimed its Central Weekly Level (CWL) and reached the bullish target of 46.4.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ : Validated my bullish reversal thesis after recovering its 416.1 CWL, hitting the 427 target for a 2.9% move.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ : Exceeded its primary 300.4 target and neared extended targets, maintaining its constructive multi-week structure.

• $Visa(V)$ : Recovered the 320 CWL on Monday and hit its 327 target (+2.6%) on Tuesday, where it is now consolidating.

• $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ : Triggered our risk protocols after jump-starting its bullish move ahead of schedule, overriding the expected initial bearish week. $964.2 was the risk management reference for shorts, and 1,011 was the extended. bullish target calculated in this publication. The high of the week was just 10 dollars above it. This highlights why strict execution and invalidation levels are critical.

All of those specific levels were modeled here one week ago. My methodology is based on technical analysis to assess momentum and identify potential bullish or bearish reversals. When providing an analysis, I establish these levels to anticipate exactly where algorithms are likely to react during the upcoming week.

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