This looks more like a positioning unwind than a broken thesis, but the risk is timing.
For Micron Technology, the bull case remains intact: HBM demand, AI servers, and tight supply. But the market is now questioning how long excess margins last once Samsung and SK Hynix scale.
Key point: memory is still cyclical, even in an AI cycle.
Near term:
A clean hold above ~$680 suggests this is a shakeout → tradable bounce
A decisive break opens ~$650 as the next liquidity pocket
What has changed is expectations:
Before: sustained supercycle
Now: strong, but potentially shorter peak window
I would not rush in. Better approach:
Start small near support
Add only if price stabilises or NVDA confirms demand strength
If NVDA disappoints, MU likely overshoots down. That is where the real opportunity may be.
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