Forget SpaceX IPO. RKLB, the Better Buy !
The stock market loves a hot IPO story, who doesn’t ?
$Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ IPO last week is a fine example.
So far, no initial public offerings (IPOs) have generated more anticipation than SpaceX, with SPAX as its ticker is supposed to be SPAX (subjected to change)
Reports that Elon Musk’s private space giant, with a possible valuation approaching $2 trillion, could file to go public by 12 Jun 2026 is really heating up momentum & sentiments and have investors dreaming about the next great wealth-building stock.
This is inevitable, after all SpaceX - (1) dominates commercial launches, (2) owns the Starlink satellite network, and (3) sits at the center of the modern space economy.
However, the reality of chasing big IPO hype, often does not work out very well.
On the other hand, investors already have a listed & proven winning space stock in $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$.
Best of all, investors can buy them already off Nasdaq.
And RKLB has been quietly building a diversified space business with (1) growing revenue, (2) expanding margins, and (3) a proven operational track record.
No matter how exciting SpaceX IPO sounds, Motley Fool considers RKLB a better stock to buy today.
Mega IPOs Stumble After Launch
Investors tend to treat IPOs like can’t-miss opportunities. Well, they might not be.
A Nasdaq study shows that over 3 years, nearly 64% of newly public companies underperform the market, often falling over -10% behind.
Blockbuster IPOs like SpaceX ‘could’ struggle during their first year as public companies, especially after the initial excitement fades and valuations collide with reality.
Some historic IPOs that failed to launch:
That’s not cherry-picking.
Mega IPOs often absorb enormous amounts of institutional and retail capital upfront, leaving little room for upside once expectations become inflated.
Will SpaceX face the same issue ?
A $2 trillion valuation would instantly place it among the world’s largest companies, with the most satellites as well. (see below)
Investors would already be paying tomorrow’s price today.
Granted, SpaceX is a phenomenal business, but phenomenal businesses can still become mediocre investments when overpay.
RKLB - a Complete Space Biz ?
RKLB’s latest first-quarter earnings report showed why the company increasingly looks like more than just a niche launch provider.
Q1 2026 revenue reached a record $200 million, rising +63.5% YoY.
RKLB also raised FY 2026 guidance as demand for launches and space systems continues to expand.
More importantly, the company does not depend on a single business line.
RKLB brings to the table:
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83 successful launches completed
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70 launches in backlog
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More launches booked in Q1 2026 than in all of 2025
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Leadership in the small payload launch market.
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Expanding space systems & satellite components business.
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Partnerships with NASA, $RTX Corp(RTX)$ & US govt. agencies.
The diversification matters.
Launches grab headlines, but RKLB’s components & services business generates recurring revenue from spacecraft parts, solar panels, flight software, and satellite systems.
In short, RKLB is becoming an end-to-end space infrastructure company, and is expanding.
Completion of Mynaric acquisition (an aerospace technology company that specializes in laser optical communications terminals for air, space, and mobile applications.) on 14 Apr 2026, gives RKLB, a European presence plus satellite laser communication capabilities.
Its planned acquisition of Motiv Space Systems will add robotics technology, that could support future Mars and lunar missions.
All these points to a company not standing still but one that is building a space ecosystem.
Neutron To Change RKLB’s Trajectory
RKLB’s new medium-lift reusable rocket Neutron is expected to launch by the end of 2026, and it just announced a 5-launch deal for it.
Neutron could dramatically expand the markets the company serves.
Currently, RKLB dominates smaller payload missions with Electron.
Neutron would allow it to compete for larger (1) national security contracts, (2) constellation deployments, and (3) deep-space missions - key areas currently dominated by SpaceX.
According to estimates from $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ and McKinsey & Company:
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The global space economy is expected to exceed $1 trillion annually by the 2030s.
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RKLB does not need to beat SpaceX to win.
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It just needs to keep capturing a growing slice of that expanding market.
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Unlike many speculative space startups, RKLB already has operational credibility.
No Perfect Stock.
After all that has been said, there are still risks when it comes to RKLB:
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RKLB remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis.
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Faces fierce competition.
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Any rocket development delays can quickly pressure valuations.
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More important, the Neutron launch has been delayed numerous times.
As a result, RKLB is volatile and trades at 74.35x sales.
So far, analysts appear increasingly confident the company is evolving into one of the few scaled independent players in the commercial space industry.
The 17 analysts covering RKLB, all maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating.
Bottom Line
SpaceX IPO will dominate headlines and could jump sharply immediately after launch.
However, history shows mega IPOs often struggle when enthusiasm outruns fundamentals.
RKLB offers something different, a proven, tried and tested launch business:
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Rapidly growing revenue.
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Expanding government partnerships.
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Managing multiple long-term growth catalysts that are already taking shape.
When all is said and done, smart investors may find the better space stock isn’t the one everyone rushes to buy on Day One.
RKLB’s Trajectory ?
To determine whether if it is a good time to buy into RKLB, I defer to its technical indicators of (1) Simple moving averages (SMA) of 20-day, 50-day, 200-day, (2) MACD and (3) RSI. Let’s see.
Simple Moving Averages (SMA).
On Thu, 14 May 2026, RKLB closed at $132.55 /share.
This is much higher than all its 3 SMAs of 20-day ($91.69), 50-day ($78.15) and 200-day ($64.54).
This signals a strong bullish trend with short-, medium-, and long-term momentum all aligned upward, confirming the stock is in a robust uptrend.
The extreme separation where stock price is more than +43% above its20-day SMA) ndicates overbought conditions, with the stock possibly facing a near-term pullback or consolidation.
However, if RKLB holds above the 20-day SMA, with the bullish trend intact, and a bull-flag continuation - it could push it toward new highs of $140–$150, provided momentum persists.
MACD.
Both MACD line (12.03) and Signal line (6.96) are above the Zero line, this paints a strongly bullish, high-momentum, and rapidly expanding uptrend as of mid-May 2026.
With the MACD line above the Signal line and significantly above the Zero line, it indicates that short-term momentum is much stronger than long-term momentum, further reinforcing a solid upward trajectory.
Lastly, a positive "Divergence" of 5.08 it also indicates accelerating buying momentum is increasing, not just holding steady.
RSI.
With its 14-day RSI coming in at 78.33, RKLB is highly overbought and experiencing extreme near-term momentum.
Whether RKLB is able to maintain its current status will depend on investors’ demand & sentiments.
Combined with it high MACD divergence, RKLB confirms a parabolic or vertical price move that are unsustainable long-term and may end in sharp corrections.
My viewpoints (mine only)
Looking at RKLB’s technical indicators, I think the stock is on a ‘high’ moment.
When it is like that, my experience tells me its best to let it be, for a while. When things calm down or when inflation hits override, an imminent correction will makes RKLB a compelling buy.
I think the most rewarding path to the stars is often found in the quiet efficiency of a proven pioneer rather than the deafening roar of a legendary debut. Agree ?
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Do you think SpaceX after IPO euphoria will fall, based on mega-cap IPO history ?
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