To The Moon

Situational Awareness LP (Leopold Aschenbrenner) — Q1 2026 13F Analysis

Executive Summary

• AUM surged 148% QoQ to $13.7B notional, driven by massive options overlay expansion.

• ~60% of notional exposure now hedges AI semiconductor downside via broad-based PUTs (SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, ORCL).

• Core long thesis intact: Heavy conviction remains in AI infrastructure (power, data centers, GPU cloud) via common stock positions in CRWV, BE, SNDK.

• Key signal: Even the most vocal AGI bull is now buying crash insurance on the chip trade — a critical sentiment shift for momentum investors.

Fund Snapshot

Q1 2026 Portfolio Moves

🔴 NEW HEDGES: The "Crash Insurance" Layer

Strategy: Systematic downside protection across the AI hardware complex. These are notional-heavy PUT positions.

Total AI Hardware Hedge: ~60% of portfolio notional

Options Nuance: The fund also holds CALLs on MU & TSM alongside PUTs (e.g., MU CALL 3.09% + MU PUT 4.27%). This is a long-gamma / two-way volatility play — not outright bearish, but positioning for violent moves in either direction.

🟢 CORE LONGS: The "Infrastructure" Thesis

Strategy: Common stock only. No leverage. These are the conviction holds Aschenbrenner believes will outlast any chip-cycle volatility.

Investor Angle: Aschenbrenner is betting that energy and data center buildouts — not GPU supply — will be the real bottleneck of the AI era.

🟡 EXITS: Unwinding Leverage & Optical Comms

The Investment Thesis: "Two-Track" Positioning

Aschenbrenner’s Q1 moves reveal a barbell strategy that appears contradictory on the surface but is coherent at the structural level:

Translation for Investors: He is not bearish on AI. He is bearish on AI hardware multiples while remaining bullish on AI physical infrastructure. The "picks and shovels" trade has moved downstream — from chip designers to power grids, transformers, and data center real estate.

Key Takeaways for SG & US Investors

🇸🇬 For Singapore Investors

• SG-listed proxies: Consider Singapore's data center REITs (e.g., Keppel DC REIT) and power/utility plays as indirect beneficiaries of the same "electricity is the new oil" thesis.

• USD hedge implication: A $13.7B fund buying massive downside protection on US tech suggests near-term volatility in Nasdaq-100 constituents. SG investors with heavy QQQ/NDX exposure should review hedges.

• Direct access: CRWV, BE, SNDK are available via most SG brokers with US market access. Note that CRWV is a higher-beta, pre-profitability name.

🇺🇸 For US Investors

• Options market signal: When a "true believer" AGI fund buys $6B+ in semiconductor PUTs, it validates the " crowded long" narrative in AI semis. This is a sentiment indicator, not necessarily a fundamental call.

• Pairs trade logic: Long infrastructure / Short semiconductor momentum is an emerging hedge fund theme for H2 2026.

• 13F Limitation Reminder: This filing is 45 days stale (as of March 31). The fund may have already rolled or closed these options. Do not treat this as a real-time signal for copy-trading.

Bottom Line

The "AI Oracle" is no longer just preaching AGI — he is pricing in volatility.

Situational Awareness LP’s Q1 13F is a risk-management document disguised as a growth fund disclosure. For SG and US investors, the actionable read is this: the AI trade is bifurcating. The easy money in semis may be behind us, but the capital cycle in power, data centers, and compute leasing is just beginning.

Positioning implication: Consider reducing naked long exposure in NVDA/SMH at stretched multiples, and rotate toward AI infrastructure value chain names that benefit regardless of which chip vendor wins.

Source: Situational Awareness LP 13F Filing (Q1 2026, filed May 2026). Notional values reflect options contract math and may overstate economic exposure. Past filings do not indicate future performance.