$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ After years of speculation, retail investors might finally get a chance to own a piece of Elon Musk's space venture. Reports suggest SpaceX is targeting a Nasdaq debut as early as June 12, with pricing expected the day before and a roadshow starting around June 4. With a rumored target valuation of $1.75 trillion and a raise of about $75 billion, this offering would surpass SaudiAramco's $29.4 billion debut by over 2.5 times, setting a new record for the largest IPO. It's easy to see why retail interest is so high. The company has transformed orbital launch economics and now operates the world's largest satellite constellation. SpaceX also folded its AI business xAI into the mix in a mostly stock deal earlier this year. Then there's the recently announced chip-making effort with Tesla, called Terafab. Combining a dominant satellite broadband play with a high-profile AI bet is the kind of story retail doesn't see often. SpaceX is even reportedly considering allocating up to 30% of IPO shares to retail buyers, roughly triple the usual norm, and shareholders just approved a 5-for-1 stock split to make shares more accessible. But there are plenty of reasons to pause before considering participation. The biggest risk heading into this IPO is the reported valuation. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would trade around 100 times revenue, depending on which figure you use. Even on more optimistic 2026 revenue projections above 2025 levels, that multiple still implies a scenario where almost everything has to go perfectly for years. Governance is another concern. SpaceX reportedly plans a dual-class structure granting insiders Class B shares 10 votes each, leaving CEO Elon Musk with about 80% of voting power despite owning around 43% of the equity. Public Class A buyers would get an economic stake but effectively no meaningful say at the board level. Pension chiefs from New York and California have already written letters pushing back, calling it one of the most management-friendly governance setups ever brought to U.S. public markets. Starship also remains a major question mark. The next-gen rocket is critical to the long-term economics of both launches and Starlink, but it flew only five times in 2025 against a 25-flight target. The first flight of Starship Version 3 from the new Pad 2 at Starbase is scheduled soon, the latest in a series of high-stakes tests that likely need to succeed for the valuation story to hold. Competition is also closing in. Amazon's Project Kuiper, now Amazon Leo, is still tiny compared to Starlink, but it's backed by the world's largest cloud provider. Amazon could eventually bundle satellite internet with AWS or Prime in ways SpaceX can't easily match. For investors tempted to get in, the combination of an extreme valuation, concentrated voting control, execution risk, and an unpredictable opening price argues for restraint. Those who do decide to buy may want to keep any position small. I'll likely just be observing from the sidelines. The underlying business might eventually justify a remarkable valuation, but at this price, under these terms, it's simply too much risk for me.
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