Micron Surge Shows AI Euphoria Is Entering New Stage -- And That's Dangerous -- Barrons.com
The most dangerous words in investing are "This time it's different," warned celebrated fund manager John Templeton. But the market looks convinced that artificial intelligence really is set to break the cycle for chips and other hardware stocks.Look no further than Micron Technology. The memory-chip maker's share price surged 19% to close at a market valuation of more than $1 trillion on Tuesday. The trigger appeared to be a positive note from UBS arguing Micron's traditionally low price-to-earnings ratio, due to its tendency to go through boom-and-bust cycles, was now outdated as it locks in long-term deals.Strangely, despite its more than eightfold rise over the past year, Micron still looks cheap at less than 10 times forward earnings. If memory chips are really no longer cyclical, why shouldn't it trade in line with Nvidia's 22 times forward multiple, or even Advanced Micro Devices' 52 times?The discrepancy suggests Micron's memory chips are seen as a commodity, largely interchang
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