The key debate now is no longer “Will HBM demand grow?” but “Can supply growth finally catch demand before hyperscaler capex peaks?”
Right now, I still think demand is large enough for both Micron Technology and SK Hynix to outperform simultaneously through at least the next 12–18 months. The market is effectively treating HBM as strategic infrastructure rather than commodity memory. Capacity for both firms is reportedly heavily booked well into 2026.
But the nuance is important:
SK Hynix likely compresses Micron’s premium multiple, not necessarily its earnings.
Micron’s rerating came partly from the narrative that it was the “catch-up winner” in HBM.
If SK Hynix massively expands HBM3E/HBM4 output while maintaining Nvidia relationships, Micron’s scarcity premium could narrow even if absolute revenue keeps rising.
The bigger structural risk is actually cyclical behaviour returning to memory. Historically, memory stocks overshoot because everyone expands capacity aggressively at the same time. AI delayed that cycle, but did not permanently remove it.
That said, AI inference may keep the cycle tighter than prior generations. Inference workloads are extremely memory-hungry, and large clusters increasingly hit memory and power bottlenecks simultaneously.
On the Roundhill Memory ETF question, I personally find it less attractive right now than owning the leaders directly.
The fact that DRAM only moved 0.36% while Micron surged suggests institutions are concentrating capital into the top AI memory beneficiaries rather than treating the whole memory sector equally. That usually happens during the strongest phase of a thematic cycle. Weak players and commodity-exposed names may lag badly even while leaders explode higher.
So:
Want concentrated AI leverage → Micron / SK Hynix
Want lower volatility and diversification → DRAM ETF
Worried about eventual oversupply → ETF may cushion the eventual rotation
But at this stage of the cycle, leadership concentration still appears very real.
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