If forced to choose between the two today, I would favour the NVIDIA-ARM alliance over Intel.
The reason is not simply AI hype. ARM benefits from a relatively attractive business model. Every successful ARM-based PC, server, smartphone or edge AI device potentially expands royalty revenue without ARM having to manufacture chips itself. NVIDIA's commitment gives ARM another avenue for growth beyond mobile and data centres.
Intel, meanwhile, faces multiple challenges simultaneously:
Pressure from ARM-based PCs.
Competition from AMD in x86.
Massive capital expenditure requirements for foundry ambitions.
The need to prove its AI strategy can generate meaningful growth.
That said, Intel is now becoming a classic turnaround story. If management executes well, manufacturing improves, and enterprise customers remain loyal, Intel could deliver larger percentage gains from today's depressed expectations.
My framework:
Higher conviction growth: Arm Holdings + NVIDIA
Higher risk, potential turnaround: Intel
The key question is whether AI PCs become a mass-market category or remain a premium niche. If AI PCs reach mainstream adoption, ARM's opportunity expands dramatically. If consumers remain indifferent, Intel's installed base and enterprise relationships may prove more resilient than the market currently expects.
For 2026, I see a clearer path for ARM than for Intel. The market is rewarding execution and AI exposure today, while Intel still needs to demonstrate both.
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