$Tradr 2X Long ASTS Daily ETF(ASTX)$ If you’re asking about the upcoming launch of BlueBird 8, 9, and 10, I’d separate two things:
1. Will the rocket launch successfully?
2. Will the satellites successfully deploy and operate?
Rocket launch success probability
ASTS switched this mission to a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch after the loss of BlueBird 7 on Blue Origin’s New Glenn. Falcon 9 is currently the most proven orbital launch vehicle in the world, with an extremely high success rate. AST announced the three satellites are planned to launch on Falcon 9 in mid-June 2026.
For the launch itself, I’d estimate:
Event My estimate
Falcon 9 reaches orbit 98-99%
All 3 satellites separate correctly 95-98%
At least 2 of 3 become operational 90-95%
Why BlueBird 7 failed
The recent BlueBird 7 loss was not an AST satellite design failure. The satellite powered on normally after separation, but Blue Origin’s New Glenn upper stage placed it into an orbit that was too low, causing AST to deorbit it. Insurance is expected to cover the loss.
That actually increases my confidence in BlueBird 8-10 because:
* AST already demonstrated satellite deployment capability.
* They moved the next mission to Falcon 9.
* The failure appears to have been a launch vehicle issue rather than a satellite issue.
What matters for ASTS stock
For ASTS shareholders, the market is probably focused on:
Best outcome
* All 3 satellites deploy successfully.
* Unfold correctly.
* Connect to AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone partners.
* Management confirms launch cadence is back on track.
Worst outcome
* Another launch mishap.
* Deployment problems.
* Delays to the 45-satellite 2026 target. AST continues to state it is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
As an ASTS investor
Given your position (...shares around ……and interest in adding more on major pullbacks), I would currently assign roughly:
* 70-80% probability: launch is viewed as a success by the market.
* 15-25% probability: some technical issue or delay.
* <10% probability: major failure comparable to BlueBird 7.
The bigger risk for ASTS over the next year is probably execution and financing of the full constellation, not whether Falcon 9 can get these next three satellites into orbit.
If all three BlueBirds are successfully deployed and operating, I would expect the market narrative around ASTS to improve significantly because it would demonstrate that the BlueBird 7 loss was an isolated launch-provider problem rather than a flaw in AST’s technology.
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