If I were allocating my own capital, I would wait rather than buy SpaceX on day one.
The problem is not the business. SpaceX is arguably the world's most valuable private aerospace company, with dominant positions in launch services and satellite internet. The problem is price versus expectations. IPO buyers often pay for years of future success upfront.
My preference would be:
1. Wait for post-IPO price discovery (highest conviction)
Let institutions and early investors establish a fair valuation.
Avoid first-day euphoria and extreme volatility.
Reassess after the first few earnings reports.
2. Small position in RKLB if seeking space exposure
RKLB benefits from increased investor attention on the space sector.
Lower valuation risk than buying a hyped IPO at any price.
Still highly speculative.
3. Avoid selling quality semiconductor holdings solely to fund the IPO
Companies such as Micron Technology, Qualcomm and Broadcom already have established earnings and cash flows.
Rotating from proven businesses into a newly listed stock can simply exchange one risk for another.
My allocation would be:
0% SpaceX on day one
Keep existing core positions
Consider a small RKLB position if bullish on the space theme
Revisit SpaceX after the initial hype and lock-up dynamics become clearer
A great company does not always make a great investment at the opening price. The valuation matters just as much as the story.
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