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06-20 02:59

$SpaceX(SPCX)$  

Policy shifts typically do not reset the reaction function overnight; market reactions often reflect changes in communication tone, inflation expectations, and liquidity assumptions rather than structural policy change

Second-half market difficulty is typically driven by shifting macro signals, liquidity conditions, and crowded positioning rather than seasonality alone, with volatility tending to rise when growth, inflation, and policy expectations become misaligned

If oil keeps falling, it reduces headline inflation and can soften rate-hike expectations at the margin, but policy responses depend more on core inflation, and wage trends than on commodity-driven disinflation alone

SpaceX (SPCX) pullbacks reflect valuation and liquidity adjustments in private markets rather than a public-market-style bubble dynamic, and whether it is a bubble or opportunity depends on financing conditions, growth outlook, and execution in the space and AI sector under its leadership。。。

Fed Warsh’s Debut: What Happens When the Fed’s “Script” Changes?

@Tiger_comments：
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his first FOMC appearance this week, and his hawkish tone immediately poured cold water on markets, triggering a sharp repricing across global assets. The policy rate itself did not change. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting, with a unanimous 12-0 vote. What scared the market was not the rate decision. It was that Warsh effectively took away the Fed’s “script.” But the story reversed the very next day. On Thursday night, the three major indices rebounded strongly, led by tech: $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$rose 2.48%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$gained 1.91%, and $S&P 500(.SPX)$climbed 1.08%, almost recovering the losses from Warsh’s debut day. In the past, markets relied on the Fed’s predictable policy path to place directional bets. Warsh cut off that path. He removed forward guidance. This statement had only 130 words, down sharply from 341 words in April, making it the shortest statement since 2007. All rate-cut language was removed, and even the detailed voting breakdown was no longer published. Warsh said directly that “forward guidance is no longer included.” He skipped the dot plot. Among 18 officials, 9 expected at least one rate hike before year-end, and the median rate projection for end-2026 rose from 3.4% in March to 3.8%. But Warsh himself submitted no dot, making him the only chair among 19 participants absent from the projection. He dismissed the dot plot as written “in pencil, with a big eraser.” He questioned official data. Warsh said traditional survey data is lagging and may simply be “an echo of history.” Going forward, the Fed will pay more attention to real-time data, private-sector data, and financial market prices themselves. He reopened the review of the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, setting up five working groups. One of them will study whether the balance sheet should eventually shrink closer to pre-2008 levels. How did markets react? Rate-hike expectations reversed dramatically. JPMorgan Asset Management’s Bob Michele said that half of the committee expecting hikes this year was a “wake-up call” for markets. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points, the dollar index surged nearly 100 points, spot gold plunged more than $150, all three major U.S. indices closed down more than 1%, and the VIX rose 12.31% to break back above 18. Sector performance was highly split. Defensive consumer staples and utilities fell sharply, mega-cap tech dropped broadly, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still managed to rise 1.38% against the trend. SpaceX is punished: Cursor deal is not a good signal anymore SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI coding tool Cursor, which has annualized B2B revenue of around $2.6 billion. But Cursor cannot yet generate enough cash flow to offset the dilution in the near term. Once risk appetite contracted, SpaceX sold off quickly into the close, falling 4.95% to $191.82, its first down day since listing. The next day, the broader market rebounded strongly and tech led the rally, but $SPCX did not follow. It fell another 3.55% last night to $185. The same acquisition was priced as “strategic expansion” in the morning and “financial dilution” in the afternoon. The only thing in between was Warsh’s press conference. That is the new reality markets face when policy predictability is removed. Fed Chair transitions are never cheap Barclays data shows that since the 1930s, the S&P 500 has on average fallen 12% in the three months after a new Fed Chair takes office. Examples include: Greenspan: -33%, Volcker: -10%, Powell: -7%, Yellen: -4% Every cycle is different, but the pattern is consistent: a new Fed Chair usually forces markets to reprice and adapt to a new policy framework. Warsh’s debut simply confirmed that pattern again. Fed has moved from an era of “expectation management” into an era of “real-time data plus market feedback.” For investors, the task is to filter out noise and focus on high-quality companies that remain underestimated. Last night’s strong tech rebound showed that AI remains the market’s highest-conviction core asset. Pullbacks can still be opportunities, but investors need to watch oil prices carefully because they could trigger a second wave of inflation pressure. Discussion Has trading become harder in the second half of the year? Was this just a false alarm, or the beginning of a more volatile regime, given that the S&P 500 historically falls 12% on average in the first three months after a new Fed Chair takes office? Do you think rate-hike expectations will be reversed if oil prices continue to fall? SpaceX has started to pull back — is this the bubble being punctured, or a buying opportunity?
Fed Warsh’s Debut: What Happens When the Fed’s “Script” Changes?

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