$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$
But if you strip out the emotion and just look at the model they've laid out: management is guiding toward roughly $471 million per month in datacenter revenue by mid-2027, across 100G/400G (~$90M), 800G (~$217M), and 1.6T (~$164M). That annualizes to about $5.6 billion per year from datacenter alone, before any cable revenue.
Compare that to the total FY2026 guidance of around $1.1 billion today, and you're looking at a potential 5x scale-up in roughly 18 months.
The bear case is valid: execution has been lumpy and credibility isn't clean, which is exactly why the stock stays under pressure on every dip.
But that skepticism is also the setup. If even partially delivered, the rerating would be massive relative to the current valuation.
The capacity ramp tells the other side of the story: scaling from about 100,000 transceivers per month toward roughly 650,000 this year and around 930,000 by 2027, with demand still ahead of supply, plus in-house laser control reduces bottlenecks.
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