$BABA-W(09988)$ Looking at the growth potential and projections in cloud and AI, while keeping competitor risk and political risk in mind. This is where I see Alibaba shares trading in three years.
1) 5% chance below $80
2) 10% chance between $80 and $95
3) 20% chance between $95 and $110
4) 10% chance between $110 and $140
5) 10% chance between $140 and $155
6) 10% chance between $155 and $170
7) 10% chance between $170 and $190
8) 25% chance over $190
I'm generally risk averse, but I think at $91, the risk may be starting to feel worth the reward. I think in three years we could be looking at an EPS in the $9.20 to $11.00 range.
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