Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold (XAUUSD) Bearish Cycle Opens Room to $3400
Gold (XAUUSD) reached its record high at $5598.75 on January 29, 2026, before entering a sustained corrective phase. The decline has lasted five months and is unfolding as a double three structure. This formation projects an extreme downside target in the $3040–$3400 range, assuming no truncation occurs. The short‑term sequence from the June 18 high is progressing as a five‑wave impulse, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Wave 1 ended at $4218.42, followed by a corrective rally in wave 2 that terminated at $4330.01. The metal then resumed lower in wave 3, reaching $3958.81. A modest rally in wave 4 is proposed complete at $4044.29. The expectation is for gold to continue lower in wave 5, which should also complete the higher degree wave (A). Once this leg concludes, a corrective rally in wave (B) is anticipated to retrace the cycle from the June 18 high before the market resumes its downward trajectory.
Near term, the structural pivot at $4384.70 remains decisive. As long as this level holds, rallies are expected to fail in three, seven, or eleven swing sequences. The broader framework highlights that the path of least resistance remains lower, aligning with projected targets in the $3040–$3400 zone.
Gold (XAUUSD) 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart
Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Chart
XAUUSD Elliott Wave Video:
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