To The Moon

As we gear up for US companies’ Q2 2026 earnings reporting, a key question arises. When it comes to trading, how will traders strike a balance between deferring to US economic reports and listed companies reporting their Q2 earnings in the coming weeks? This period as usual, will be stressful for Tiger contributors, I feel. The dilemma to share about a company’s earnings or US latest’s essential report, given the finite time we have. While the struggle continues, it is timely to recap last week’s reports before the onslaught of quarterly earnings reports. Last week’s US Economic Reports: 30 Jun 2026 - US Consumer Confidence for June 2026. 30 Jun 2026 - Jobs Opening & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) for May 2026. 01 Jul 2026 - US ADP Non-farm payroll for June 2026. 01 Jul 2026 - US Manufacturing PMI for June 2026. 02 Jul 2026 - US Non-farm payroll for June 2026. 02 Jul 2026 - US jobless claims - weekly & continuing. 02 Jul 2026 - US Factory Orders for May 2026. US Consumer Confidence. For June 2026, US consumer confidence inched up to 91.2 from a downwardly revised May 2026’s 90.6. More importantly, it showed a split in sentiment, with (a) consumers reporting relief from falling energy prices alongside (b) growing pessimism about the current labour market. (see below) Drilling down further into Consumer confidence report’s, two core sub-indices: - Present Situation Index & Expectations Index, it could be seen that: The Expectations index rose to 74.4, largely driven by easing gasoline prices following an extension of US-Iran ceasefire, although the truce seems to be going nowhere. The Present situation index fell to 116.4. Perceptions of US labour market softened considerably, with 22.5% of consumers saying jobs are "hard to get". This is the highest level recorded since January 2021. Jobs openings & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs). The May 2026’s JOLTs contained some quirks. For May 2026, job openings held steady at 7.594 million, vs forecasts of 7.28 million vs April 2026’s downwards revised 7.585 million. Notable jobs increases occurred in wholesale trade (+71,000), followed by accommodation/food services (+62,000). Hiring fell by -45,000 to 5.17 million, Thankfully, hiring rate remained stable at 3.3%. More importantly, the gap between steady job postings and slower hiring indicates that workers were less confident about switching jobs, keeping the quits rate subdued. Simply put, workers weren't really moving anywhere, leaving US labour market vulnerable to swings, both good and bad. And it makes it an exceptionally rough time to be on the hunt for work. According to Indeed Hiring Lab, Director of economic research (N. America), Laura Ullrich: Stability of a stagnant labour market depends entirely on separations staying this scarce or, conversely, hires remaining subdued. It would not take much, for example - a modest rise in layoffs OR a few more workers deciding to quit, to pull the net negative. Alternatively, if hiring picks up across a broader swath of US labour market, a more robust employment growth can be witnessed. ADP Non-Farm Payroll. For June 2026, the ADP report showed that US private businesses added a seasonally adjusted 98,000 jobs, falling short of projected 118,000 expectations and slowing down from May 2026’s unrevised 122,000 jobs. Jobs Breakdown by Sector: Education &Health services sector was the primary driver of growth with 48,000 new jobs. Next was, trade, transportation, and utilities with 15,000 jobs. Financial activities ranked third adding added 14,000 jobs. Natural resources and mining is the the only sector that finished June 2026 in negative territory, cutting -5,000 positions. According to ADP, Chief economist Nela Richardson: The pace of hiring tells a story of both supply and demand. It is confirmed that people are taking longer to find work, but there also are signs of labour supply constraints in certain industries. For now, overall effect is a slowdown in job creation. As reported by CNBC, on the wage side, year-over-year pay growth for employees who remained with their employers stayed at 4.4%. While workers who changed jobs commanded a +6.6% increases. US Manufacturing PMI. US manufacturing sector expanded for the 6th consecutive month, though activity slowed slightly. For June 2026, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI dropped to 53.3% vs market consensus of 53.8 vs May 2026’s 54.0%. The cooldown reflects a tapering-off of (a) front-loaded orders and (b) geopolitical easing, while the sector continues to be supported by a strong AI investment boom. Both - output & new orders maintained solid expansion, though at a marginally slower pace than May 2026's 4-year highs. Even though overall inflation eased slightly compared to May 2026's peak, higher raw material and freight costs kept input prices elevated. Factory hiring remains subdued, with employment index stood at 49.7, pointing to a stabilization after the sharpest cuts in years. US Non Farm Payroll US Labour Department released the monthly jobs report a day early. Markets and federal offices were closed on Friday in observance of 4 Jul 2026, Independence Day holiday. A cooler reading on payrolls in June, which broke a 3-month hot streak, is still likely to keep US central bank’s officials' full attention on inflation and extend the interest rate pause, while preserving the hawks' case for potential rate hikes later this year. June’s cooler jobs report ended a 3-month hiring streak. It will likely keep US Federal Reserves focused on inflation, meaning US interest rates will remain unchanged for now, leaving the door wide opened for rate hikes later this year. For June 2026, US economy added +57,000 jobs vs Wall Street consensus of 114,000 vs May 2026’s downwards revised 129,000. US unemployment. At the same time, unemployment rate inched down marginally to 4.2% vs market consensus of 4.3% vs May 2026’s 4.3%, due largely to more than 700,000 people left the labour force. According to US Labour Dept., that pushed the labour force participation rate to 61.5%, down from 61.8% a month earlier and its lowest level outside the pandemic since 1976. Average monthly job growth over the past 3 months stands at roughly 111,000. This is markedly stronger than Fed officials’ posited (at the start of 2026), that zero job growth could still mean a balanced job market. LPL Financial, Chief economist, Jeffrey Roach notes that: An increasing number of people are dropping out of the job market altogether. The decline in participation may signal that workers are getting discouraged because it’s hard finding a job. US labour market is holding (for now), giving the Fed opportunity to stay focused on price stability. ** It is important to know too that statistically that people who stop looking for work are no longer counted as unemployed. This means that a shrinking US labour force can drive the unemployment rate lower even if the job market isn’t getting stronger. Jobless Claims. US labour market data released on 02 Jul 2026, indicated a highly resilient job market, as low initial layoffs paired with a slight rise in continuing claims suggested that finding new work takes a bit more time. Weekly claims. For week ending 27 Jun 2026, weekly jobless fell by -1,000 claims to 215,000. (see below) This is better than market consensus of 219,000 and last week’s upwards revised 216,000. The 4-week moving average fell by -2,500 to 222,000 (down from the prior week's revised average of 224,500), smoothing out short-term volatility to show a stable firing trend. Continuing claims. For 7week ending 20 Jun 2026, continuing claims ticked up by +2,000 to 1,814,000. This is higher than analysts’ estimates of 210,000 and previous week's downwards revised 1,812,000. The 4-week moving average meanwhile rose to 1,803,000, marking an increase of +10,750 from the previous week's revised average of 1,792,250. Taken together, the report combination is mildly hawkish for the Fed and constructive for the “soft-landing” narrative. US Factory Orders (MoM). US Census Bureau reported that US factory orders fell in May 2026, by -1.3% (or $657.4 billion) to $657.4 billion. Data comes in ‘better’ than economists’ forecast of -1.8% but ‘worse off’ than April 2026’s upwards revised 5.3%. The headline drop was driven mainly by a sharp pullback in commercial aircraft orders, while core business investment held up better than the top line suggested, partly driven ‌by investment in artificial intelligence. $Boeing(BA)$ reported on its website that for May 2026, it had received 27 aircraft orders, compared to April 2026’s 136 orders. Year-over-year (YoY), US orders increased 5.1% in ‌May 2026. Manufacturing, which accounts ⁠for 9.4% of US economy, remains supported by the AI spending boom, which has limited the drag ⁠from the long-drawn US-Iran war. US Manufacturing sectors’ May strongest performers included: Machinery: Orders surged +2.1%, reflecting continued capital investment (capex). Computers & Electronic products: Rose by +0.2% monthly and posted an impressive +13.0% YoY growth. Primary metals & Fabricated metal products: Experienced "big gains" in orders The key interpretation is - US factory orders remain highly distorted by aircraft volatility, so much so that one month’s headline move can overstate or understate the true industrial trend. The key interpretation is US factory orders remain highly distorted by aircraft volatility. Meaning a single month’s headline move can easily overstate or understate the true industrial trend. The steadier parts of the report - machinery, fabricated metals, computers & electronics, and core capital goods - showed that business spending intentions were still holding up for May 2026. My summary (mine only). Last week’s data showed a US economy that is cooling, not cracking: Hiring slowed. Job openings eased. Consumer confidence softened. Layoffs stayed low & US labour market remained stable. Factory orders and manufacturing data were mixed, Overall, US economy looks late-cycle and losing momentum. On US inflation, data does not point to a new inflationary upswing; they are more consistent with gradual disinflation. Agree ? Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. SPCX, Blasting or Crashing in Jul & Oct ? HQ - SG quantum stock to Buy & Hold ? MSFT vs GOOG, the Blue-er blue chip to Own. Do you think US economic reports or quarterly earnings will influence traders’ sentiments more? Do you think inflation’s imminent return cannot be stopped, it is a question of “when” ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents