MU closed up 1.11% at $948.80 on Tuesday, with overnight trading pushing it further to $964. After the stock's brutal 22% drawdown from its $1,255 all-time high, the question everyone's asking is the same one I've been wrestling with — is this the dip, or is there more pain ahead?
Here's the context that matters. The selloff had nothing to do with Micron's actual business. The Q3 results were genuinely one of the best quarters in the company's history — revenue of $41.46B, up 166% from a year ago, EPS of $25.11 beating estimates by 24%, and Q4 guidance of $50B that blew past the $43.58B consensus. This is a company firing on all cylinders.
The selloff came from two things — profit-taking after a 760% run over 12 months, and now a new overhang: SK Hynix's $28 billion Nasdaq IPO under the ticker SKHY, listing on July 10. SK Hynix is the primary HBM supplier to Nvidia, which makes it a direct competitor to Micron in the space everyone cares about most. Investors are repricing MU's competitive position ahead of that listing, and that's what's been driving the pressure this week.
The bull case hasn't changed though. Micron is Anthropic's primary memory supplier, holds a Series H equity stake in Anthropic, and has 16 non-cancellable multi-year supply agreements worth over $22 billion already locked in. HBM capacity is sold out through 2027 and management said they can only fill 50–66% of current customer demand. That's not a company losing market share — that's a company that literally can't make chips fast enough.
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