$hynix-WI(SKHYV)$ BofA's latest look at the global memory market has some pretty big numbers. Their memory indicator is near record highs at 183, well above past peaks of 120–130, and they're calling for a massive revenue surge in 2026.
They forecast global DRAM revenue to jump +325% YoY to $568.8 billion next year, and NAND revenue to surge +299% YoY to $323.1 billion. Combined, that pushes the total market to nearly $891.8 billion, up from $214.8 billion in 2025.
A lot of this is driven by AI. Servers, especially those using High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), now account for over half of total DRAM demand. Similarly, enterprise/data center SSDs make up more than 50% of NAND demand. HBM and advanced memory are now taking a huge 35% to 40% chunk of total cloud AI infrastructure spending.
The HBM market itself is projected to hit $76.8 billion in 2026E and then $134.6 billion by 2027E, with operating profit margins sitting near 49% and climbing. The tech mix is shifting fast, from HBM3e and HBM4 this year to HBM4 dominating by next.
The report notes that making an HBM chip uses 3x to 4x more wafer capacity than standard DRAM, which is cannibalizing supply for standard memory. This has led to a structural shortage in legacy DDR4, to the point where spot prices for 16Gb DDR4 and DDR5 have converged in the $35–$40 range, erasing the traditional tech premium for DDR5.
On the pricing side, it's all about ASP expansion. Blended DRAM ASPs are modeled to grow +249% YoY in 2026E, with the fastest momentum in the first half of the year. To support this growth, total industry capex is projected to jump +62% YoY to $118.7 billion in 2026E, with the bulk going into DRAM.
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